Sunday, November 27, 2016

鄧麗君 再見我的愛人

Economic Wheel – On Vacant Property Management [经济之轮 - 论空置物业管理]



Economic Wheel – On Vacant Property Management

- Achieving Spacious Buildings with Numerous Units

经济之轮 - 论空置物业管理

- 安得广厦千万间




1.      Status Analysis

Real estate economy plays a decisive role in every country’s economic development. The healthy development of real estate economy is also a necessary guarantee for the sound economic development, avoiding economic crisis in every countries. Many economic crises in the United States and the West were caused by the unhealthy development of real estate economy. For example, the most recent financial crisis in the United States in 2007 was caused by the unhealthy development of real estate economy. In real estate economic management, the management of vacant property is the most critical. Because vacant properties are the property economic (real estate economy) bubbles lie in, is the unhealthy development of real estate economy. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct an in-depth analysis on vacant property management.

2.      Real estate Economic Management

Before talking specifically about vacant property management, let us look at the whole content of real estate economic management comprehensively first. Real estate economy is mainly related to the followings: property product production, sales and maintenance. Property product production is similar to the manufacturing of other physical products, the difference is that property product production requires certain properties as foundation, and property products can be in circulation but it can not be moved. Of cause, the management of real estate economy should be analyzed from an economic point of view. This includes: market demand, supply, land resource stock, property resource conversion, price of property products, economic wheel chaining capabilities ( driving force for related industry), the degree of national participation in the property economy, the saturation degree and bubble volume of property products, the tightness of property projects, the control of real estate economic development, and so on. Vacant property management is ignored by most of us, and no one specifically raise the vacant property to economic level to study. No matter in what kind economic development situation, vacant property phenomenon always exists, is the critical for the control of real estate economic development.

3. Vacant Property Management

Vacant property management mainly lies in two aspects: one aspect is the control of real estate economy, which is the specific application of Beizhan economic control theory in real estate economy; one aspect is the digestion of ubiquitous vacant property.

3.1. Control of Vacant Property

Beizhan economic control theory advocates the use of various economic levers to realize real-time self-regulation of real economy as much as possible. So, in the real estate economy, to realize the healthy development of real estate economy, which is to avoid the emergence of the real estate bubble, the economic control levers can be used is the vacant property tax[1]. Vacant property tax is a kind of economic lever to realize real - time self-regulation of real estate economic development.

3.2. Digestion of Vacant Properties

In real estate economic development, no matter what kind economic situation (hot and cold) there is, many properties will have vacant phenomenon, especially in high-rise properties. For example, the apartment vacancy rate in Toronto is about 1.8% in 2015[2]. It is estimated that there are approximately 377,000 vacant property units in Canada, with an actual figure of 610,000[3]. Vancouver has about 20,000 vacant property units [3]. Some vacant property units may have been almost never rented out because of their location, highness, and so on. At present there are more than 90,000 people in Toronto line up waiting for low-rent housing [3]. When these social vacant property resources are integrated into the public service system, vacant properties will be utilized. This will not only bring considerable profits to the owner of the vacant properties, but also will provide better housings for the majority of the members of the society, at the same time, it will also save  a lot of costs for the Government housing projects. This will be a win-win cooperation, all happy thing. This is what I called the "
Achieving Spacious Buildings with Numerous Units ", which is the ideal of Datong society.
 
4. Theoretical Basis

In analyzing real estate economy, following economic theories shall be the mainly applied:

4.1. Limited Economic Development Theory

Here the following concepts mentioned in
limited economic development theory shall be mainly applied: product use saturation degree, bubble degree, bubble volume, industry bubble volume, etc., shall be used to the real-time monitoring of a country’s or region’s real estate economy, so as to create conditions for the real-time control with the self adjustment nature.

4.2. Beizhan Economic Control Theory

Here we shall apply the thoughts of ​​Beizhan economic control theory to analyze and establishing model for real estate economy development based on facts and find one or more control levers to realize the healthy development with self-regulation.

4.3. Sharing Economic Theory

Here we shall use the advocate of sharing social resources in haring economy theory to make a socialized comprehensive arrangement of property resources in real estate economy, so as to realize the improvement of the use saturation of property products, the reduction of the bubble degree, the industry bubble degree, automatically avoid the bubble economy, so that current real estate economy can also become an intensive economy.

5. Case Study

5.1. Self-Control of the Property Economy

The vacant property tax is a kind of economic lever to realize real - time self - regulation of real estate economic development. See section 3.2 for details.

5.2. The Ghost City in China

For China's ghost cities, everyone who knows China's real estate economy, will not have no understanding. The so-called ghost cities in China are the property districts developed in pieces in many cities, which have very few people living inside after completion, these are the pieces of vacant properties. This phenomenon arises from the fact that the real estate economy in China lacks proper self-regulated control levers, such as vacant property tax. Of course, the creating reason also lies in the unreliability of market research and investment assessment. Only by applying Beizhan economic control theory and limited economic development theory to the future real estate economic development, can China avoid the creation of new ghost cities, can China make the real estate economy out of the shadow of bubble economy.

To absorb existing ghost cities (vacant properties), the sharing economic theory should also be used. Along with comprehensive arrangements for economic development, it may be appropriate to arrange all people’s housing and working nationwide, especially the vulnerable groups in various cities. So we can achieve the win-win cooperation, all happy result. (So we can) achieve what I called the ""
Achieving Spacious Buildings with Numerous Units " the ideal of Datong society. Of course, due to the huge number of ghost cities and areas, the digestion of ghost cities will be a long-term task.

6.      Summary

The vacant property management is the key for the healthy development of real estate economy. The economic and social benefits of vacant property management are enormous. For example, vacant property management will bring Canadian property owners billions of dollars in profits (or billions of dollars in profit lost saving), will save billions of dollars in government spending for Canada. At the same time it will provide good living environments for a large number of members of our society.

Vacant property management has greater significances to China. , the activation of the entire ghost city property (vacant property management will create tens of billions to hundreds of billions economic benefits for China. The allocation and arrangement of the supporting economic activities will also create tens of billions to hundreds of billions economic benefits for China.

The social benefits of the activation of Ghost cities will liberate the general public and vulnerable groups for the second time. Their lives will open a new chapter on this. Therefore, developing real estate economy, development, construction is one aspect; the vacant property management is another more important aspect. Otherwise, the real estate economy will become a blind developed economy, a bubble economy, and eventually will lead to economic crises round by round.

1.   现状分析

房地产经济在各国的经济发展中均占有举足轻重的地位,房地产经济的良性发展也是各国经济良性发展,避免经济危机的必要保证。美国和西方的多次经济危机均是由于房地产经济的不良发展而造成的,例如:最近一次的美国20007 年的金融危机就是由于房地产经济的不良发展所造成的。在房地产经济管理中,对于空置物业的管理是最为关键的。因为空置物业是物业经济(房地产经济)泡沫之所在,是房地产经济不良发展之所在。因此很有必要对空置物业的管理进行深入的分析。

2.   房地产经济管理

在具体谈到空置物业管理之前,让我们首先来全面地考察一下房地产经济管理的全部内容。房地产经济主要涉及以下内容:物业产品的生产,销售及维护。物业产品同其他实物产品的制造应当是相似的,所不同的是物业产品的制造需要一定的物业为基础,而且物业产品是可以流通但却是不可以移动的。房地产经济的管理当然是应当从经济学的角度来分析,这其中应包括:市场需求量,供应量,土地资源存量,物业资源的转换,物业产品的价格,经济轮的链动能力(相关行业的拉动力),物业经济的国民参与度,物业产品的饱和度和泡沫量,物业项目的紧密度,房地产经济发展的控制,等等。空置物业的管理是大家所忽视的,更没有人专门将空置物业提升到经济学的高度来加以研究。无论在何种经济发展状况下,空置物业的现象总是存在的,是控制房地产经济发展的关键。

3.   空置物业管理

空置物业管理主要在于两个层面:一个层面在于房地产经济的控制,也就是备战经济控制论在房地产经济中的具体应用;一个层面在于普遍存在的空置物业的消化

3.1.                  空置物业的控制

备战经济控制论主张利用多种经济杠杆对现实经济尽可能地实现实时自我调节。那么,在房地产经济中,要实现房地产经济的良性发展,也就是要避免房地产泡沫的出现,可以利用的经济控制杠杆就是空置物业税[1]。空置物业税是一种实现房地产经济发展实时自我调节的经济杠杆。

3.2.                  空置物业的消化

在现实的房地产经济发展中,无论是什么经济情形(热和冷),许多物业均会存在空置的现象,尤其是高层物业。例如:2015年多伦多的公寓空置率大概是1.8% [2] . 据估计,加拿大全国共有约377000空置物业单元,实际上的数字可能是610000 [3]。温哥华市大概有20000个空置物业单位 [3]。某些空置物业可能是由于其所处的位置,高度,等等因素,几乎从未有被出租过。而现时多伦多共有90000多人在排队等候廉租屋 [3]将这些社会空置物业资源纳入公共服务系统,则空置物业就将能够物有所用。这不仅能够给空置物业的所有者带来相当的利润,为广大的社会成员提供良好的安居物业,同时还将为政府节省许多安居工程的费用。这将是一件合作共赢,皆大欢喜的事情。这就是我所说的“安得广厦千万间”的大同社会的理想。

4.   理论依据

在对房地产经济进行分析研究时,主要应当应用如下的经济理论:

4.1.                  有限经济发展理论

这里主要应当应用有限经济发展理论中所提到的产品的使用饱和度,泡沫度,泡沫量,行业泡沫量等概念,来对一个国家或地区的房地产经济进行实时的监控,为对房地产经济的自我调节性质的实时控制创造条件。

4.2.                  备战经济控制论

这里主要应当应用备战经济控制论的思想来对房地产经济的发展进行基于事实的建模分析,并寻找一个或多个控制杠杆以实现自我调节下的良性发展。

4.3.                  共享经济理论

这里主要应当运用共享经济理论中所提倡的共享社会资源的主张来对房地产经济中的物业资源进行社会性的全面安排,从而实现物业产品使用饱和度的提高,泡沫度的减少,行业泡沫度的减少,自动地避免泡沫经济的产生,使现实的房地产经济也能够成为集约型经济。

5.   案例分析

5.1.                  物业经济的自我控制

空置物业税是一种实现房地产经济发展实时自我调节的经济杠杆。详见3.2

5.2.                  中国的鬼城

对于中国的鬼城,了解中国房地产经济的人,不会不无了解。所谓中国的鬼城就是存在于许多城市的成片开发的物业小区,建成后却很少有人居住,也就是成片的空置物业。这一现象的产生就在于中国的房地产经济缺乏应有的能够自我调节的控制杠杆,例如:空置物业税。当然,其产生的原因还在于市场调查和投资评估的不可靠性。中国只有应用备战经济控制论和有限经济发展理论于未来的房地产经济发展中,才能够避免产生新的鬼城,才能够使房地产经济走出泡沫经济的阴影。

要消化已经存在的鬼城(空置物业),也应当利用共享经济理论。在全面安排经济发展的同时,不妨适当地在全国范围内安排全民的安居就业,尤其是各个城市的弱势群体。这同样也可以实现合作共赢,皆大欢喜的结果。实现我所说的“安得广厦千万间”的大同社会的理想。当然,由于鬼城的数量和面积巨大,鬼城的消化将是一个长期的任务。

6.   总结

空置物业的管理是房地产经济良性发展的关键,空置物业管理的经济效益和社会效益都是巨大的。例如:空置物业的管理将会使加拿大的物业拥有者获得几十亿的利润(或者说减少几十亿的损失)将使加拿大节省数十亿的政府开支。同时将会为数目众多的社会成员提供良好的安居环境。

空置物业的管理对于中国的意义更大,整个鬼城资产的盘活(空置物业管理)将为中国创造的经济效益应该在几百亿至几千亿之间,配套的经济活动的配置及安排所能为中国创造的经济效益也应该在几百亿至几千亿之间。

鬼城资产盘活的社会效益在于将会使普通大众及弱势群体获得二次解放。 他们的人生将就此开启崭新的篇章。因此,发展房地产经济,开发,建设是一个方面,空置物业的管理是更重要的一个方面。不然的话,房地产经济就会成为盲目开发的经济,成为泡沫经济,最终导致一轮又一轮的经济危机。



[1]. Country Management - On Policy Amendment [国家管理 - 论政策的变更]


 -- Beizhan Liu

Saturday, November 12, 2016

鄧麗君-但願人長久

Los Angeles Condos


Economic Wheel - Dual-wheel Driven Social Developing Mode [经济之轮 – 双轮驱动社会发展模式]

Economic Wheel - Dual-wheel Driven Social Developing Mode

[经济之轮 双轮驱动社会发展模式]


1. Introduction

When we look at the history of our human society, we can clearly and easily conclude that technology development is the impetus to drive the development of our society. For a long period, this kind technology development aimed at exploring and occupying the natural resources as more as possible and as fast as possible. We are proud that we can have advanced technologies to utilize natural resources.

However, this single technology wheel driven mode is incomplete because it ignores the balance between natural resource and human consumption of natural resource. So here I would like to advocate a new viewpoint for social development named as dual wheel driven social development mode. In this mode, environmental improvement is weighted same as technology development. The progress in environment can also lead the society to develop to a new level and revolutionarily change the face of our society.

This mode provides us a more accurate reflection on the internal mechanism to achieve a perfect and long-standing social development. This mode concludes our scattered understandings on the truth of the nature and social development to a simple theory.

2. Dual-wheel Driven Social Developing Mode

Single technology wheel driven mode is well known to nearly everybody. Here I would like to emphasis on the dual-wheel driven social development mode which I proposed.

Figure 1 shows more details about the dual-wheel driven mode. This mode weights environment as equal as technology. Technology development has impacts on human society with the convenience and efficiency it provides. The difference of technology and its application among countries make it possible for one country to get global resources (natural resources or other resources) easily through the trading of technology products. The country with technology advantages will gain capital surplus and can re-invest the capital in technology innovation to continuously keep its leading position in improving human life with new technologies. There are many examples in this area, such as: the invention and application of electronic power, the invention and application of computer, the invention and application of optical communication.

Now let's look at environmental factors. The environment advantages for a country do not means protecting environment without doing anything, it means improvement of untouched or damaged environment, supply of beneficial ecosystem, balanced supply of needed resources, supply of human culture and tourism resources. Country with such advantages can also export with its excellent tourism resources and environment management mode to win capital to re-invest in the environment issues.

Environment and technology are not totally separated. Environment related technology will also change the face of human life greatly, especially when we look at it globally. When we focus on these two issues, we may create a new era of human society: Post- Agriculture Society which may be the best development form of our society.


Figure 1. Dual-wheel Driven Social Developing Mode

3. Dual-Wheel Driven Mode and Post-Agriculture Society

Under single-wheel driven mode, we have achieved great success. We are proud of our achievements. We even think we can not only find the nature of the nature, but we can also control the nature with the nature we know. We do have controlled some of the natures, we dig tunnels, we build reservoirs, and we fly in the space. However we also produce many unexpected results: the changing of the global climate, the expanding of deserts, the shortage of waters across the world, the widening of the ozonosphere empty hole, the disappearing of species. Some of these progresses can not be easily recovered. So what's the problem? It's because we do not pay more attention to the environment when we explore natural resources with advanced technologies. With dual-wheel driven mode we can keep both technology innovation and environment innovation. Environmental protection is not just to keep the natural resource untouched. That's my different thinking on environmental protection. The application of environment innovation will finally change the face of our society to Post-Agriculture Society or other name you can word it. Some of the characteristics of agriculture society are: dispersed and self-supplied unit, reusable natural resource, etc. What will we get with the possible invention in environment in the future?

Let's see some tomorrow’s pictures:

·        Power supply: if we can find the truth of photosynthesis, maybe we can use tree and plant like facilities to supply electronic power;

·        Water supply: if we can apply the water recycling system in each house or building unit, maybe the seasonal rains plus little public water supply system are enough;

·        Buildings: if we can find a plant label to be applied to our buildings, maybe we can automatically adjust the temperature and humidity of our living room;

·        Road: if we find strong grasses which can bear the heavy weight and erosion of vehicles, we may change the reflection of sunlight and reduce the city hot-island effects;

·        Reproducibility: Natural resources we used all can be recreated;

·        Oasis Technology: Deserts around the world can be transformed to green lands with some kind environmental technologies;

4.      Conclusion

So that's what the environment technology will change our society to a Post-Agriculture Society. With the developed information technology, we can work and collaborate at home or in any place in the world. This provides us the availability of dispersibility, self-supply and reusability.

Just like the famous Indian Poet Tagore told us in nearly one hundred years ago: “God is waiting for the human being to return to their childhood in wisdom” The dual-wheel driven mode provides us a better way to recover the bad effects by the single wheel driven mode.

Figure 2 show the development direction of human society. (From nature to nature).


Figure 2. The development direction of human society

1.   引言

当我们回望人类社会历史的时候,我们可以清楚而容易地得出结论:技术发展是推动我们社会发展的动力。长期以来,这种技术发展旨在于尽可能快地挖掘和占用自然资源。我们感到自豪的是我们可以拥有先进的技术来利用自然资源。

然而,这种单一技术轮驱动模式是不完全的,因为它忽视了自然资源和人类消耗自然资源之间的平衡。所以在此我想提出一个被称为双轮驱动社会发展模式的社会发展新观点。在这种模式下,环境改善与技术发展拥有相同的权重。环境的进步也可以导致社会发展到一个新的水平,并革命性地改变我们的社会面貌。

这种模式为我们提供了一个能够具有完美性和长期性的社会发展内部机制的更为准确的反映。这种模式将我们对自然和社会发展的真理的分散理解总结为一个简单的理论。

2.   双轮驱动社会发展模式

单一技术的轮驱动模式是人所皆知的。在这里,我想强调我提出的双轮驱动社会发展模式

1显示了双轮驱动模式的更多细节。这种模式将技术和环境的权重视为相同。技术发展对人类社会的影响在于其所提供的方便性和效率性。技术及其在各国之间的应用的差异性使得一个国家能够通过技术产品的贸易轻易地获得全球资源(自然资源或其他资源)。具有技术优势的国家将获得资本盈余,并可以将资本重新投资于技术创新,以不断保持其在利用新技术改善人类生活方面的领先地位。在这方面有许多例子,例如:电能的发明和应用,计算机的发明和应用,光通信的发明和应用。

现在让我们看看环境因素。一个国家的环境优势并不意味着保护环境而不做任何事情,而是意味着改善未受接触或受到破坏的环境,提供有益的生态系统,平衡供应所需资源,提供人类文化和旅游资源。具有这样优势的国家也可以以优良的旅游资源和环境管理模式出口,赢得资本并重新投资于环境议题。

环境和技术并不完全分离。环境相关的技术也可以极大地改变人类生活的面貌,特别是当我们以全球的视野来看待它的时候。当我们关注这两个议题时,我们可能会创造一个人类社会的新时代:后农业社会,它可能是我们社会最好的发展形式。


1. 双轮驱动模式

3.   双轮驱动模式和后农业社会

单轮驱动模式下,我们取得了巨大的成功。我们为我们的成就感到自豪。我们甚至认为我们不仅可以找到自然的法则,而且我们也可以利用我们所知道的自然法则来控制自然。我们已经控制了一些自然界,我们挖隧道,我们建造水库,我们在空间飞行。然而,我们也产生了许多意想不到的结果:全球气候的变化,沙漠的扩大,世界范围内的水资源短缺,臭氧层空洞的扩大,物种的消失。其中一些进展是不容易恢复的。那么问题是什么?这是因为当我们用先进技术探索自然资源时,我们没有更多地关注环境。采用双轮驱动模式,我们可以保持技术创新和环境创新。环境保护不仅仅是为了保持自然资源不受接触。这是我对环境保护的不同想法。环境创新的应用会将我们的社会面貌最终改变到后农业社会或其他你可以命名的名字。农业社会的一些特点是:分散和自给自足的单位,可重复使用的自然资源等等。在未来的环境中我们能得到什么可能的发明呢?

让我们看一些明天的图片:

·        电力供应:如果我们能找到光合作用的真相,也许我们可以使用树木和植物一样的设施来提供电力;

·        水的供应:如果我们可以在每个房屋或建筑单元中应用水循环系统,也许季节性的雨水加上小的公共供水系统就足够了;

·        建筑:如果我们可以找到一种植物标签应用到我们的建筑物中,也许我们就可以自动调节我们居室的温度和湿度;

·        道路:如果我们发现可以承受重的车辆的重量和侵蚀的强壮的草科植物,我们可以改变阳光的反射并减少城市热岛效应;

·        可再生性:我们使用的自然资源均可以再生;

·        绿洲技术:世界各地的沙漠可以通过某种环境技术转化为绿地;

4.   总结

这就是所说的环境技术会将我们的社会改变为后农业社会。随着信息技术的发展,我们可以在家里或在世界上的任何地方工作和协同工作。这就为我们提供了可分散性,自给自足和可重用性。

正如著名的印度诗人泰戈尔在近一百年前告诉我们的那样:“上帝正在等待人类以智慧回到他们的童年”,双轮驱动模式为我们提供了一种恢复单轮驱动模式所带来的副作用的良好途径。
2显示了人类社会的发展方向。(从自然回归到自然)。


2. 人类社会发展方向

  The thought of this article was initialized in 2000, this article was written in 2001 and revised in 2016.

-- Beizhan Liu

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Yakuro - Blue The Color Of Dreams

Books - Global Governance

4. <<Global Governance>> 

Description: The mainly related topics of this book are: political election, the pre-requirements for the candidates of election, political party management, discipline management, policy portfolio, global governance, global governance structure, the development of the country form of the United Nations, the relationships between the United Nations and other international entities, management main body, law judgment, legislation, basic human rights and the constitution law, Bentham theory, news media, standardized business valuation framework, city planning, and so on. In this serial book, the innovative concepts I proposed include: the development of the country form of the United Nations, Beizhan global governance thought, Beizhan global governance structure, the United Nations migration management agency, military migration administration department, the global migration wish expression system, the UN migration management tax system, WTO merged with the United Nations, the Amended Bretton Woods SystemWTO-based UN global tariff management system, unified constituency administration center, international country management policy portfolio system, revised Bentham theory, country management main body and self-management main body, and so on. Such concepts are very meaningful for managing our world more efficiently and changing our world more scientifically.

[描述:这本续集主要涉及的议题有政治选举,选举人的预先要求,政党管理,纪律管理,政策组合,全球治理全球治理结构,联合国国家形态的发展联合国和其他国际实体的关系,管理主体,判法立法,基本人权宪法,边沁理论,新闻媒体,标准化商业评估框架城市规划,等等。我在这本书中所提出的具有创新意义的概念包括:联合国国家形态的发展,备战全球治理思想,备战全球治理结构,联合国迁徙管理署军事迁徙管理处全球迁徙意愿表达系统联合国迁徙管理税收系统,合并于联合国的WTO,修正的布雷顿森林体系,基于WTO的联合国全球关税管理体系,统一的选区管理中心,国际性的国家管理政策组合系统,修正的边沁理论,国家管理主体和自我管理主体,等等。这些概念对于更加有效地管理我们的世界,更加科学地改造我们的世界是非常有意义的。]

ISBN: 978-1-365-41373-5, 978-1539156154
Pages: 242
E-Book: Lulu Bookstore
E-Book: Google Play
Print Book: Amazon Bookstore, Createspace Bookstore
Published Date: September, 2016