Thursday, December 31, 2015

Saturday, May 23, 2015

GIOVANNI MARRADI - Spiritual Journey

Visiting Toronto City Hall

Pan Am Games Promotion Board By Beizhan Liu

Toronto City Hall By Beizhan Liu

Two Towers of Toronto City Hall By Beizhan Liu

Canada Flag on Nathan Phillips Square By Beizhan Liu

Performing Stadium By Beizhan Liu

Old Toronto City Hall By Beizhan Liu

City Rink on Nathan Phillips Square By Beizhan Liu

Holding Pole Inside Toronto City Hall By Beizhan Liu

Mayors of Toronto City By Beizhan Liu

Current City Council of Toronto By Beizhan Liu

Flags Inside Mayor's Office By Beizhan Liu

Council Chamber of Toronto City By Beizhan Liu

Mayor/Speaker's Platform By Beizhan Liu

Saturday, May 2, 2015

Ernesto Cortazar Forever You and I

Economic Wheel – Economic Theory – On the Uniqueness of Business Valuation Model [经济之轮 - 经济理论 – 论商业评估模式的唯一性]



Economic Wheel – Economic Theory – On the Uniqueness of
Business Valuation Model

- Together on Beizhan Model

经济之轮 - 经济理论 论商业评估模式的唯一性

- 兼论备战评估模式

The author summarized the existing business valuation models and methods, and proposed the issue of uniqueness of business valuation model in accordance with the basic principles of business. The author proposed BEIZHAN MODEL which can be used as the only one business valuation model based on the universal rules of business.

1. Current Business Valuation Models

1.1 Definition of Business Valuation

Business Valuation is a kind business behavior practiced by business valuation professionals to assess the value of the whole or part of a business according to certain business valuation model and to determine the price of the business.


1.2 Status and Role of Business Valuation

Business valuation is the foundation of business as a special commodity to trade and exchange. Business valuation is a mandatory work for business development, business integration, business exchange and a business transition. Business valuation is also a means for business operators and owners to conduct comprehensive self-evaluation on the performance of the operated business. Business valuation is also a necessary condition to implement value management on the business.


1.3 Definition of Business Valuation Model [3]

Business valuation model should be defined as the set of the contents to be valued, the valuation scope and the valuation methods applied.


1.4 Definition of Business Valuation Method

Business valuation method should be defined as the method to calculate the value of
a certain level of the assessed business.

1.5 Relationship between Business Valuation Model and Valuation Method

Business valuation model should be unified and unique; business valuation methods for different levels of a business can be different; that is to say that business valuation model can contain multiple different valuation methods. The valuation method regarding the same level of business shall be the same as most as possible. In case of rationality accepted by all, the valuation methods for the same level of businesses can be different; such as the variation of valuation methods caused by the industry difference; the variation methods caused by profit growth property, etc. The compatibility of different valuation methods for the same business level can be developed and improved according to the business valuation framework.


1.6 Current Business Valuation Models and Methods

In speaking of current situation,
business valuation is fulfilled with different business valuation models [1]. Current business valuation models mainly are the followings:

1.6.1 Asset(or cost) based approach method
1.6.2 Market-based approach method
1.6.3 Income-based approach method
1.6.4 Venture capital approach method

2. The Uniqueness of Business Valuation Model

2.1 Basic Principle of Business Transaction

The basic principle of business transaction is that same value goods can be exchanged. Based on this principle, I think that business valuation model should only be one, which is the uniqueness of business valuation model.

2.2 Uniqueness of Business Valuation Model

The uniqueness of business valuation model means all business valuation shall apply the same business valuation model. Then we can ensure the comparability of valuation results; we can ensure the fairness of the business transactions. The valuation results brought by different valuation models can not be compared.


2.3. The Significance of the Uniqueness of Business Valuation Model

The uniqueness of business valuation model determines the comparability of business, ensures the fairness of business transactions. It's like to determine the weight of an object, the standard of weights and measures shall be unified, different units of measurement should have only one conversion standard. Therefore, determination of a unified unique business valuation model for the transaction of business (equity trading), this particular commodity, has a very important significance. Significance of the Unification of business valuation model is equivalent to the significance of the unification of weights and measures standard.

3. Beizhan Valuation Model

3.1. The Drawbacks of Current Business Valuation Models

Current business valuation models all have the significance of partial business valuation all have limitations, can not fully reflect the full value of the valued business. Using P / E values
​​to determine the terminal value of a business is subjective, has no basis, the possible deviation which may be brought is a multiplying result and is unacceptable. Weighted approach to multiple business valuation results based on different valuation model is subjective and has no basis, so it is unscientific and therefore is unacceptable.

3.2. The Foundation for the Uniqueness of Business Valuation Model

The uniqueness of business valuation model is determined by the commonality of business itself, which is the internal basis of the uniqueness of the business valuation model. The external foundation of the uniqueness of business valuation model includes general rules and common requirements of business.

3.2.1 The Commonality of Business


The common features of business include:

·         Presently owning certain technologies, facilities, financial resources and human resources (current resource characteristics)
·         Presently owning certain profits (current profit characteristics)
·         May have stable profit or growing profit (profit growth characteristics)
·         May have stable business or expanding business (resource expansion characteristics)

3.2.2. The General Rules of Business

·         Comparability: Business transaction requires that goods with same value can be compared
·         Fairness: Business transaction requires that the exchange of goods is fair
·         Universality: comparability and fairness of business transactions shall be applied to any business

3.2.3 The Common Requirements of Business

·         The Unity of Business Valuation Model

No business in the world can be said that it can not be valued, the perfect business can be valuated, the non-perfect business can also be valued with the same business valuation model. This is the unity of business valuation model.

·         The Popularity of Business Valuation Model

Business valuation model shall not be inscrutable metaphysics or high-energy physics, business is well known, and therefore, business valuation model shall also be easy to be understood by the public, this is the popularity of business valuation model.

3.3. Beizhan Model

Based on the external foundation of business valuation model, according to the internal foundation of business valuation model, establishing the united and unique business valuation model is possible. Standing on this, I would like to propose the fact plus growth valuation model, that is the Beizhan Model.

3.3.1 Fact plus Growth Valuation Model

Fact plus growth valuation model consists two parts, the fact part is the valuation on the current resource characteristics and current profit characteristics of a business, the growth part is the valuation on the profit growth characteristics and resource expansion characteristics of a business.

The valuation of the fact part is relatively easy to understand, and it is possible to get relatively more objective valuation result. Many current business valuation models belong to this kind valuation, such as: assets (or cost) based approach method, income-based approach method, and so on.


The valuation of the growth part is relatively not easy to understand or acceptable. However, profit growth and resource expansion are the essence of business, which is not difficult to understand. Of course, the profit growth characteristics and resource expansion characteristics of each business are different. There are three main growth types here, one is parallel growth; one is curve growth; one is curve shrink (negative growth). Curve growth may contain the case of geometric curve growth. For example: the growth of the discrete business of catering, retail and other businesses belong to parallel growth type; the growth of chain store business belongs to curve growth type; and the growth of some internet companies at some stages belongs to geometric curve growth type; the growth of some uncompetitive companies at some stages belongs to curve shrink type.

Some people will definitely say, the valuation of growth part of a business is difficult to be determined objectively. It is not in reality. The growth part of a business is firstly determined by the fact part of the business (Namely current resource characteristics and profit characteristics). Secondly, the growth part of a business is determined by the prospect and competition form of the market it belongs to. These factors can make the valuation of the growth part of a business to be more objective. Competitive position of the business is also a factor in its growth in part to assess the impact. The competition position of a business in the belonged market is a key factor to influence the valuation of the growth part of that business. The competition position of the business is a kind resource characteristic of the business.

To sum up, fact plus growth valuation model shall have universal significance, shall be a more objective business valuation model. Because this business valuation model is based on the internal foundation of the uniqueness of business valuation model, and therefore, it shall be only one business valuation model.

3.3.2 Fact Part Valuation

The fact part valuation can be divided into two parts: the valuation of current resources and the valuation of current profits. It is a chromatogram of a business in the cross section on time.

3.3.2.1. Current Resource Valuation

Current resource valuation consists of three parts: core value, packaging value and strength value.

3.3.2.1.1. Core Value

The valuation of core value consists of valuation of intangible assets and tangible assets mainly, such as: brand resources, technology resources, product type product resources, service type product resources, customer resources, and so on. Traditional asset or cost valuation method can be applied to such kind valuation.

3.3.2.1.2 Packaging Value

The valuation of packaging value contains the valuation of market resources of a business, such as: market competition position of the business, marketing forms of the business, products or services, and so on. The valuation of this part needs to be gradually developed and improved based on business valuation framework.

3.3.2.1.3. Strength Value [2]

The valuation of the strength value ​​contains the valuation of the operation resources of a business, such as: business partners, business alliances, business sponsors, business supporters, business documents, business relationships, and so on. The valuation of this part also needs to be gradually developed and improved based on business valuation framework.

3.3.2.2. Current Profit Valuation

Current profit valuation mainly focuses on the current profit of a business. The traditional income based method can be applied to such kind valuation.

3.3.3. Growth Part Valuation

Growth part valuation can be divided into two parts: resource expansion valuation and profit growth valuation. It is a chromatogram of a business in the cross section on time after a certain expected developing period. According to current common practice, the expected developing period generally is five years. In my view, this is expected chromatogram and the chromatogram of the fact part is somewhat different, especially in the aspect of resource expansion characteristics.

3.3.3.1. Resource Expansion Valuation

Resource expansion valuation shall be based on the certainty of resources, because it is after all a forecast for the future. In my view, the valuation of resource expansion shall mainly include the intangible asset part in the core value, such as: brand resources, customer resources, technology resources, and so on. Tangible asset resources, the expansion of packaging value and strength values ​​are uncertain, under the principle of equality and fairness, they can be out of consideration. The valuation of this part can also be gradually developed and improved based on business valuation framework. The traditional intangible asset valuation method all can be applied to such kind valuation.

3.3.3.2. Profit Growth Valuation

Profit growth valuation mainly focused on the profit status in the expected developing period of a business. The traditional method can be used to assess the income of such assessments.

4. Summary

The unique of business valuation model is determined by the inherent nature characteristics of business, the fact plus growth business valuation model (Beizhan Model) I have proposed reflects the inherent nature of the business, meets the external needs of business, and therefore it can be used as the sole business valuation model. I also very welcome further discussion on this model from the industry insiders.

本文作者总结了现有商业评估模式及方法,并根据商业的基本原则提出了商业评估模式的唯一性的问题。本文作者依据商业的普遍规则提出了可以作为唯一的商业评估模式的备战模式,以供大家研究和探讨。

1.   现有的商业评估模式

3.1.                  商业评估的定义

商业评估是指商业评估专业人士依据一定的商业评估模式对某一个指定的商业或商业的部分进行估值并确定其商业价格的商业行为。

3.2.                  商业评估的地位与作用

商业评估是商业作为一种特殊商品进行买卖和交换的基础。商业评估是商业发展,商业集成,商业交换和商业转变所必需进行的一项工作。商业评估也是商业经营者和所有者对商业经营业绩进行全面自我评判的一种手段。商业评估也是对商业实施价值管理的一个必要条件。

3.3.                  商业评估模式的定义[3]

商业评估模式应当定义为对一个商业进行评估时所包含的评估内容,评估范围及所使用的评估方法的集合。

3.4.                  商业评估方法的定义

商业评估方法应当定义为对一个商业进行评估时针对某一个层面的价值的计算方法。

3.5.                  商业评估模式和评估方法的关系

商业评估模式应当是统一的和唯一的,对于一个商业的不同层面的商业评估方法可以是不同的,也就是说商业评估模式可以包含多种不同的评估方法。针对同一个商业层面的评估方法应当尽量是相同的,在合理性为大家所接受的情况下,针对同一个商业层面的评估方法也可以是不尽相同的,例如:行业的差异性所导致的评估方法的差异性,盈利增长特性所导致的评估方法的差异性,等等。同一个商业层面的评估方法的兼容性问题可以依据商业评估框架来逐步完善和发展。

3.6.                  现有的商业评估模式和方法

就当前的形势来讲,商业评估有不同的商业评估模式[1]来实现的。统一的唯一的商业评估模式并未有人提出。目前的商业评估方法主要有以下几种:

3.6.1.               基于资产(或成本)的方法
3.6.2.               基于市场的方法
3.6.3.               基于收入的方法
3.6.4.               风险投资方法

2.   商业评估模式的唯一性

3.1.                  商业交易的基本原则

商业交易的基本原则就是同值商品可交换。基于此原则,我认为商业评估的模式应当只有一个,这就是商业评估模式的唯一性。

3.2.                  商业评估模式的唯一性

商业评估模式的唯一性就是指所有的商业评估都应当运用同一个商业评估模式。因为只有这样才能够保证所有的商业评估的结果是可比较的,才能够保证商业交易的公平性。不同的商业评估模式所评估出来的结果是无法比较的。

3.3.                  商业评估模式唯一性的意义

商业评估模式的唯一性确定了商业的可比较性,保证了商业交易的公平性。这就像确定物体的重量一样,度量衡的标准应当是统一的,不同的度量衡单位应当只有一个换算标准。因此,确定统一的唯一的商业评估模式对于商业这种特殊商品的交换(产权交易)具有非常重要的意义。统一商业评估模式的意义等同于统一度量衡的标准

3.   备战评估模式

3.1.                  现有商业评估模式的弊端

现有的各种商业评估模式均具有局部商业评估的意义,都是具有局限性的,不能够完全体现所评估商业的全部价值。利用P/E值来来确定商业终点价值是主观的,没有依据的,其可能带来的误差是倍乘的,是不可接受的。利用多个商业评估模式的评估结果进行加权处理的方式是主观的,没有依据的,因此是不科学的,是不可接受的。

3.2.                  商业评估模式唯一性的基础

商业评估模式的唯一性是由商业本身的共性所确定的,这就是商业评估模式唯一性的内在的基础。商业评估模式唯一性的外在基础包括商业的普遍规则和共同需求。


3.2.1.                     商业的共同特征

商业的共同特征包括:

*      现实拥有一定的技术,设施,财力和人力资源(现实资源特征
*      现实可能拥有一定的盈利(现实盈利特征
*      可能具有稳定的盈利或增长的盈利(盈利增长特征
*      可能具有稳定的业务或扩张的业务(资源扩张特征

3.2.2.                     商业的普遍规则

*      可比性:商业交易要求同值商品是可以相比较的
*      公平性:商业交易要求商品的交换是公平的
*      普遍性:商业交易的可比性和公平性应当是适用于任何商业的

3.2.3.                     商业的共同需求

*      商业评估模式的统一性

世界上没有任何一个商业可以说是不可以被评估的,完美的商业可以被评估,不完美的商业一样可以被同一个商业评估模式来评估。这就是商业模式的统一性。

*      商业评估模式的通俗性

商业评估模式不应当是高深莫测的玄学或高能物理学,商业是人所共知的,因此,商业评估模式也应当是易于大众所理解的, 这就是商业评估模式的通俗性。

3.3.                  备战模式

根据商业评估模式唯一性的外在基础,依据商业评估模式唯一性的内在基础,建立统一的唯一的商业评估模式是可能的。 基于此,我提出事实加增长评估模式,即备战模式

3.3.1.                     事实加增长评估模式

事实加增长评估模式包含两个部分, 事实部分就是针对一个商业的现实的资源特征和现实的盈利特征而进行的评估,增长部分就是对一个商业的盈利增长特征和资源扩张特征而进行的评估。

事实部分的评估是比较容易理解的,也是可以相对的得到比较客观的评估结果的。现实的许多商业评估模式均属于此部分的评估,例如:基于资产(或成本)的方法,基于收入的方法,等等。

增长部分的评估相对来讲是不易理解的或接受的。然而,盈利的增长和资源的扩张却是商业的本质,这是不难理解的。当然,每一个商业的盈利增长特征和资源扩张特征是不一样的。 这里主要有三种增长类型,一种是平行增长,一种是曲线增长,一种是曲线萎缩(负增长)。 曲线增长中可能会包含几何曲线增长的情形。例如:离散的饮食,零售店等商业的增长就属于平行增长类型;连锁店商业的增长就属于曲线增长类型;而某些互联网企业在某些阶段就属于几何曲线增长类型;某些缺乏竞争力企业在某些阶段就属于曲线萎缩类型。

有人一定会说,一个商业的增长部分的评估是很难客观的加以确定的。其实不然。一个商业的增长部分首先决定于该商业的事实部分(即现实的资源特征和现实的盈利特征)。其次,一个商业的增长部分决定于该商业所属于的市场的发展前景,竞争形态。这些因素都可以使得对商业增长部分的评估尽可能的客观。该商业的市场竞争地位是影响其增长部分评估的一个主要因素。该商业的市场竞争地位属于该商业的资源特征的一种。

综上所述,事实加增长评估模式应当是具有普遍意义的,较为客观的一种商业评估模式。由于这种商业评估模式是建立在商业评估模式唯一性的内在基础之上的,因此,它也应当是唯一的商业评估模式。

3.3.2.                     事实部分的评估

事实部分的评估可以分为两个部分:现实资源的评估和现实盈利的评估。它是一个商业在时间断面上的层析图。

3.3.2.1.                        现实资源的评估

现实资源的评估包含三个部分:核心价值,包装价值和力量价值
3.3.2.1.1.   核心价值

核心价值的评估主要包含对商业的有形资产无形资产的评估,例如:品牌资源,技术资源,产品类产品资源,服务类产品资源,客户资源,等等。传统的资产或成本评估方法可以应用于此类评估。

3.3.2.1.2.   包装价值

包装价值的评估包含对商业的市场资源的评估,例如:商业的市场竞争地位,商业,产品或服务的市场宣传形态,等等。这一部分的价值评估有待依据商业评估框架来逐步完善和发展。

3.3.2.1.3.   力量价值[2]

力量价值的评估包含对商业的运行资源的评估,例如:商业伙伴,商业联盟,商业的赞助者,商业的支持者,商业文件,商业关系,等等。这一部分的价值评估也有待依据商业评估框架来逐步完善和发展。

3.3.2.2.                        现实盈利的评估

现实盈利评估主要是对商业的盈利现实状况进行评估。传统的收入评估方法可以应用于此类评估。
3.3.3.                     增长部分的评估

增长部分的评估可以分为两个部分:资源扩张的评估和盈利增长的评估。它是一个商业在预期的发展阶段后的某一个时间断面上的层析图。按照现在的通常的实践,这个预期的发展阶段一般是5。以我的观点,这个预期的层析图和事实部分的层析图是有所不同的,尤其是在资源扩张特征方面。

3.3.3.1.                         资源扩张的评估

资源扩张的评估应当建立在资源的确定性基础之上,因为它毕竟是对未来的一个预测。以我的观点,资源扩张的评估应主要包括核心价值中的无形资产部分, 例如:品牌资源,客户资源,技术资源,等等。有形资产资源,包装价值和力量价值的扩张是不确定的,在对等公平的原则下,可以不予考虑。这一部分的价值评估也可以依据商业评估框架来逐步完善和发展。现实的无形资产的评估方法均可应用于此类评估。

3.3.3.2.                        盈利增长的评估

盈利增长评估主要是对商业的预期的发展阶段的盈利状况进行评估。传统的收入评估方法可以应用于此类评估。

4.   总结

商业评估模式的唯一性是商业内在本质特征所决定的,我所提出的事实加增长的商业评估模式(备战模式)反映了商业的内在本质,满足了商业的外在需求,因此是可以作为唯一的商业评估模式的。我本人也非常欢迎业内人对此模式进行进一步的探讨。

[2]. Clinton Lee, <<Ultimate Website Valuation Guide>>, July 29, 2008 http://www.sitepoint.com/web-site-valuation-guide/
[3]. http://www.valuadder.com/glossary/business-valuation-model.html

-- Beizhan Liu