OneWayTicket: 2022

Friday, July 1, 2022

On Full Dividend System - Transforming debt society to investment society

On Full Dividend System

- Transforming debt society to investment society

1. Current issues

Buy shares in a corporation, become a shareholder of the corporation, and obtain certain economic returns. This is the theoretical foundation for the creation of the stock and security market, this is the first theoretical cornerstone of the currency finance security market ^[1][2]. However, in reality, this is not the case, not all stocks can give stock holders, who are shareholders, a certain economic return. That is to say, many stocks do not pay dividends. Theory and practice are very inconsistent. That's the problem.

From another point of view, currencies lent to consumers by banks or financial institutions will be charged with interests, but stocks that do not pay dividends cannot obtain economic returns similar to interests, and can only be responsible for their own profits and losses in market transactions. That is to say, the same currency has different economic properties because of different owners. This creates inequity of currency. This is also the problem.

Let's look at another problem from the perspective of the world, which is the debt problem. How serious is the debt problem in countries around the world? Let's look at it from the perspective of national debts. In 2020, the average debt of American households was USD$137,063 ^[3]; in 2019, the average debt of Canadian households was CAD$72,950^[4]; in April 2020, the total debt of EU households was USD$6,467.2 billion^[5], and the total liabilities of Chinese households were USD$8,051.6 billion ^[6]. Such figures are enough to prove how heavy the debt burden of our people is, and our society is definitely a debt society. This is more of a problem.

However, the full dividend system that I want to propose today will solve the above problems in whole or in part, and gradually transform our society from debt society to investment society.

2. The history and current situation of the dividend system

The world's first stock was issued in the 17th century by the Dutch’s East India Company^[1]. From the issuance of the first stock to present, the stock exchange has a history of nearly 400 years, which can be described as a long history.

The stock dividend system has been in existence from the beginning and is the basis for the sales of stocks. But I do not know when, stock dividends are no longer a unified fundamental shareholder interest. According to a 2014 survey by Mr. Dan Solin, director of investment advisors at Buckingham Asset Management, 39% of global companies do not pay dividends, and 59% of small-cap companies do ^[7]. Of course, while not all companies are currently paying dividends, the scale of global dividend payouts is astonishing. According to a survey by CNBC reporter Ms. Holly Ellyatt, the global dividend in 2020 was USD$1.26 trillion and was expected to be USD$1.32 trillion in 2021^[8]. This is the history and current situation of global stock dividends, of course, theory and practice are obviously inconsistent.

3. Definition of full dividend system

The full dividend system can solve the three problems mentioned above, so what is the full dividend system? The full dividend system is not a new invention, but a return to the stock dividend system and the stock security theory. The full dividend system means that all the shares of a corporation must have a dividend of not less than a certain threshold (for example: 10%), which is the dividend payout ratio we often talk about. Of course, the basis of dividends is the profit of the corporation. Corporation includes both listed corporations and unlisted corporations. The full dividend system will have a huge impact on our society, straighten out the economic relations of our society, and promote the transformation of our society from a debt society to an investment society.

4. Full dividend system and social transformation

Before analyzing the impact of the full dividend system on social transformation, let's take a look at what is a debt society and what is an investment society.

Debt society is that the whole society owes debts, government owes debts, national owes debts, and enterprise owes debts. A society with a national debt-to-income ratio of more than 50% can be called as a debt society. The specific government debt ratio, enterprise debt ratio and national debt ratio can be discussed further.

Investment society means that private investment capital is relatively abundant, the citizens’ participation in the economic development is relatively high, and the economic synergy is relatively high. The currency financial industry obtains benefits more through investment and services for private investment. This is investment society.

The full dividend system can effectively promote the development of an investment society, because the full dividend system can increase private investment capital. From the point of view of economics, the full dividend system is a good means to improve regional economic and financial properties. The full dividend system can increase the productive currency and reduce the consumption currency ^[9], thereby improving the currency yield of the whole society. For example: in 2020, the total profit of all corporations in the United States is $2,480.094 billion US dollars. If calculated according to the full dividend system, the new investment available to the American society will reach $248.0094 billion US dollars every year. Of course, due to the internationalization of the stock market, the full dividend system may be implemented on an international scale, and the annual new investment available to the American society may be higher than the above figure. This is the role of the full dividend system in promoting the transformation of our society to the investment society.

Let us further explore the impact of the full dividend system on social transformation. Taking the United States as an example, if 70% of the new investment brought by the full dividend system is reinvested in the financial security market every year, 10% is used for industrial investment, 10% is used for the general consumer market; then, the total assets of the US financial market will increase by $148.926 billion US dollars every year. U.S. venture capital will increase by $24.801 billion US dollars every year.

The full dividend system can also partially promote the elimination of national debts. Because not every citizen is a holder of shares, or is a shareholder. For example, in the United States, only about 52% of adults invest in the stock market ^[10]. But even so, the effect of the full dividend system on national debt reduction shall be obvious and important. In terms of corporate debt reduction, most companies own stocks of different listed companies, so the effect of the full dividend system on corporate debt reduction shall also be obvious and important. If 10% of the new investment brought by the full dividend system is used to reduce debt every year, the private debt of the United States will be reduced by $24.801 billion US dollars every year.

Of course, the above is a theoretical estimate of the private investment capital generated by the full dividend system based on the designed minimum dividend threshold. If we want to know exactly the new private investment capital generated by the full dividend system in reality, we need more profit data of incorporated companies that do not pay dividends. Given the length of this article, here we can simply make a rough estimate based on the survey research conducted by Mr. Dan Solin in 2014 ^[7]. Assuming that about 40% of listed companies in the world do not pay dividends, after the implementation of the full dividend system, these 40% of listed companies will pay dividends with a dividend payout ratio of 10% or more, taking the estimated total dividends of $1.32 trillion US dollars in 2021^[8] as the base to estimate, then the new increased dividends (private investment capital) may be about $880 billion US dollars every year. This is the possible scale of the actual increasements in private investment capital after implementing the full dividend system.

5. The significance of the full dividend system

5.1. Significance in Economic Theory

The full dividend system will realize the consistency between the theory and practice of stock securities.

5.2. Significance in sociological theory

The full dividend system will realize the equality of the currency.

5.3. Significance of social transformation

The full dividend system will promote the transformation of our society from debt society to investment society.

5.4. Significance of the development of the financial industry

The full dividend system will promote the development of the financial investment industry greatly.

5.5. Significance of economic development

The full dividend system will increase the total investment capital of the society, which will strengthen the financing capacity of enterprises and promote social entrepreneurship and enterprise development.

5.6. Significance of social integration

The full dividend system will help to strengthen social cohesion and corporate cohesion. The full dividend system can enhance the profit motivation of entrepreneurs, make the employees who hold shares in the enterprise pay more attention to the development and profit of the enterprise, and drive all employees to pay attention to the development of the enterprise and put them into action, so that the cohesion of the enterprise will be enhanced. The enhanced cohesion of enterprises will also promote the enhancement of the cohesion of the whole society.

5.7. Significance of government taxation

The realization of the dividends of the full dividend system will also partially increase the government's tax revenue.

6. Summary

In short, to achieve the consistency of the theory and practice of stock securities, realize the equality of currency, and realize the transformation of our society from debt-oriented to investment-oriented, the full dividend system is a better policy tool. An investment society is a beautiful society with good financial property. Of course, the full dividend system is only a policy tool for social transformation, and the government and the financial industry need to launch more investment policies or products.

1. 现时的问题

购入企业的股份，成为企业的股东，并获取一定的经济回报。这是股票和证券市场创立的理论基础，是金融证券市场的第一块理论基石^[1][2]。然而现实中，却并非如此，并非所有的股票都能够给股票持有者，也就是股东，一定的经济回报。理论和实践很不一致。这就是问题。

从另外一个角度讲，银行或金融机构借给消费者的货币是要收取利息的，而不分红的股票却是无法获取类似于利息的经济回报的，只能在市场的买卖中自负盈亏。也就是说，同样是货币，却因为所有者的不同而具有不同的经济特性。这就产生了货币的不公平性。这也是问题。

我们再从世界的角度来看另外一个问题，也就是债务问题。债务问题在世界各国到底有多严重呢？让我们从国民负债的角度来看一看吧。2020年美国家庭的平均负债是137,063美元^[3]；2019年加拿大家庭的平均负债是72,950加元^[4]；2020年4 月欧盟家庭的总负债是64,672亿美元^[5]，中国家庭的总负债是80,516亿美元^[6]。这样的数字足以证明我们的国民的债务负担有多么沉重，我们的社会绝对是一个债务型社会。这更是一个问题。

而我今天要提出的全元分红制将全部或部分地解决上述问题，并逐步将我们的社会由债务型社会转型为投资型社会。

2. 分红制的历史及现状

世界上的第一支股票是在17世纪由荷兰的东印度公司发行的^[1]。从第一支股票的发行到现在，股票交易有近400年的历史，可谓历史悠久。

股票分红制是一开始就有的，是股票得以销售的基础。但不知何时起，股票分红不再是一个统一的基础性股东利益。根据白金汉资产管理的投资顾问主任Mr. Dan Solin 2014年的调查研究，39%的全球性公司是不派发红利的，59% 的小资本公司是派发红利的 ^[7]。当然，虽然目前并非所有的公司都派发红利，但全球红利派发的规模还是很惊人的。依据CNBC的记者Ms. Holly Ellyatt的调查，2020全球红利为1.26万亿美元，并预计2021年为1.32 万亿美元 ^[8]。这就是全球股票分红的历史和现状，当然，理论和实践显然是不一致的。

3. 全元分红制的定义

全元分红制可以解决前面所提出的三个问题，那么什么是全元分红制呢？全元分红制并非什么新的发明创造，而是对股票分红体制的回归，对股票证券理论的回归。全元分红制就是指所有的股份制公司的股票都要有不少于某一个阈值（例如：10%）的分红，也就是我们常讲的分红派息率，当然分红的基础是企业的利润。股份制公司既包含上市的股份公司，也包括非上市的股份公司。全元分红制将对我们的社会产生巨大的影响，理顺我们社会的经济关系，推动我们的社会由债务型社会向投资型社会转型。

4. 全元分红制与社会转型

在分析全元分红制对社会转型的作用前，我们来看一看什么是债务型社会，什么是投资型社会。

债务型社会就是全社会负债，政府负债，国民负债，企业负债。国民的债务收入比率在50% 以上的社会都可以称之为债务型社会。具体的政府负债比率，企业负债比率和国民负债比率可以进一步探讨。

投资型社会就是民间投资资本比较丰富，国民对经济发展的参与性比较高，经济协同性也比较高，金融行业更多地是通过投资及对民间投资的服务而获取利益，这就是投资型社会。

全元分红制可以有力地促进投资型社会的发展，因为全员分红制可以增加民间投资资本。从经济学的角度来讲，全元分红制是改善区域经济金融特性的一个良好手段，全元分红制可以增加生产性货币，减少消耗性货币^[9]，从而提高整个社会的货币收益率。例如：2020年美国所有股份公司的总利润为24,800.94亿美元，如果依照全元分红制来计算，美国社会每年所可获得的新增投资将达到2,480.094亿美元。当然，由于股市的国际化，全元分红制可能是在一个国际的范围内实现的，美国社会每年所可获得的新增投资有可能会高于上述数字。这就是全元分红制对将我们的社会转型为投资型社会的促进作用。

我们来进一步来探讨一下全元分红制对社会转型的作用。以美国为例，假如每年因全元分红制所带来的新增投资的70% 重新投入到金融证券市场，10%用于实业投资，10% 用于普通消费市场; 那么，美国的金融市场总资产每年就将增加1,489.26亿美元。美国的风险投资资本每年就将增加248.01亿美元。

全元分红制也可以部分地促进国民债务的消除。因为并非每一个国民都是股票的持有者，都是股东。例如在美国，大概只有52%的成年人投资于股市^[10]。但即使如此，全元分红制对国民减债的作用也应该是显而易见的，举足轻重的。在企业减债方面，绝大多数企业均拥有不同上市公司的股票，因此全元分红制对企业减债的作用也应该是显而易见的，举足轻重的。假如每年因全元分红制所带来的新增投资的10%用于减债，美国的民间债务就将每年减少248.01亿美元。

当然，以上是依照所设定的最低分红阈值对全元分红制所产生的民间投资资本的理论估算，如果要确切地了解全元分红制在现实中所产生的新增民间投资资本，就需要更多的不派发红利的股份公司的利润数据。鉴于本文的篇幅，这里我们可以简单地依照Mr. Dan Solin 2014年的调查研究 ^[7]，作出一个粗略的估算。假设全球有约40%上市公司不派发红利，在实施全元分红制后，这40%的上市均将派发依照10%或大于10%的派息率的分红，依照预估的2021年1.32 万亿美元的总分红 ^[8]为基数来估算，那么，每年的新增分红（民间投资资本）就可能会是8,800亿美元左右。这就是实施全元分红制后实际新增民间投资资本的可能规模。