Sunday, November 27, 2016

Economic Wheel – On Vacant Property Management [经济之轮 - 论空置物业管理]

Economic Wheel – On Vacant Property Management

- Achieving Spacious Buildings with Numerous Units

经济之轮 - 论空置物业管理

- 安得广厦千万间

1.      Status Analysis

Real estate economy plays a decisive role in every country’s economic development. The healthy development of real estate economy is also a necessary guarantee for the sound economic development, avoiding economic crisis in every countries. Many economic crises in the United States and the West were caused by the unhealthy development of real estate economy. For example, the most recent financial crisis in the United States in 2007 was caused by the unhealthy development of real estate economy. In real estate economic management, the management of vacant property is the most critical. Because vacant properties are the property economic (real estate economy) bubbles lie in, is the unhealthy development of real estate economy. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct an in-depth analysis on vacant property management.

2.      Real estate Economic Management

Before talking specifically about vacant property management, let us look at the whole content of real estate economic management comprehensively first. Real estate economy is mainly related to the followings: property product production, sales and maintenance. Property product production is similar to the manufacturing of other physical products, the difference is that property product production requires certain properties as foundation, and property products can be in circulation but it can not be moved. Of cause, the management of real estate economy should be analyzed from an economic point of view. This includes: market demand, supply, land resource stock, property resource conversion, price of property products, economic wheel chaining capabilities ( driving force for related industry), the degree of national participation in the property economy, the saturation degree and bubble volume of property products, the tightness of property projects, the control of real estate economic development, and so on. Vacant property management is ignored by most of us, and no one specifically raise the vacant property to economic level to study. No matter in what kind economic development situation, vacant property phenomenon always exists, is the critical for the control of real estate economic development.

3. Vacant Property Management

Vacant property management mainly lies in two aspects: one aspect is the control of real estate economy, which is the specific application of Beizhan economic control theory in real estate economy; one aspect is the digestion of ubiquitous vacant property.

3.1. Control of Vacant Property

Beizhan economic control theory advocates the use of various economic levers to realize real-time self-regulation of real economy as much as possible. So, in the real estate economy, to realize the healthy development of real estate economy, which is to avoid the emergence of the real estate bubble, the economic control levers can be used is the vacant property tax[1]. Vacant property tax is a kind of economic lever to realize real - time self-regulation of real estate economic development.

3.2. Digestion of Vacant Properties

In real estate economic development, no matter what kind economic situation (hot and cold) there is, many properties will have vacant phenomenon, especially in high-rise properties. For example, the apartment vacancy rate in Toronto is about 1.8% in 2015[2]. It is estimated that there are approximately 377,000 vacant property units in Canada, with an actual figure of 610,000[3]. Vancouver has about 20,000 vacant property units [3]. Some vacant property units may have been almost never rented out because of their location, highness, and so on. At present there are more than 90,000 people in Toronto line up waiting for low-rent housing [3]. When these social vacant property resources are integrated into the public service system, vacant properties will be utilized. This will not only bring considerable profits to the owner of the vacant properties, but also will provide better housings for the majority of the members of the society, at the same time, it will also save  a lot of costs for the Government housing projects. This will be a win-win cooperation, all happy thing. This is what I called the "
Achieving Spacious Buildings with Numerous Units ", which is the ideal of Datong society.
4. Theoretical Basis

In analyzing real estate economy, following economic theories shall be the mainly applied:

4.1. Limited Economic Development Theory

Here the following concepts mentioned in
limited economic development theory shall be mainly applied: product use saturation degree, bubble degree, bubble volume, industry bubble volume, etc., shall be used to the real-time monitoring of a country’s or region’s real estate economy, so as to create conditions for the real-time control with the self adjustment nature.

4.2. Beizhan Economic Control Theory

Here we shall apply the thoughts of ​​Beizhan economic control theory to analyze and establishing model for real estate economy development based on facts and find one or more control levers to realize the healthy development with self-regulation.

4.3. Sharing Economic Theory

Here we shall use the advocate of sharing social resources in haring economy theory to make a socialized comprehensive arrangement of property resources in real estate economy, so as to realize the improvement of the use saturation of property products, the reduction of the bubble degree, the industry bubble degree, automatically avoid the bubble economy, so that current real estate economy can also become an intensive economy.

5. Case Study

5.1. Self-Control of the Property Economy

The vacant property tax is a kind of economic lever to realize real - time self - regulation of real estate economic development. See section 3.2 for details.

5.2. The Ghost City in China

For China's ghost cities, everyone who knows China's real estate economy, will not have no understanding. The so-called ghost cities in China are the property districts developed in pieces in many cities, which have very few people living inside after completion, these are the pieces of vacant properties. This phenomenon arises from the fact that the real estate economy in China lacks proper self-regulated control levers, such as vacant property tax. Of course, the creating reason also lies in the unreliability of market research and investment assessment. Only by applying Beizhan economic control theory and limited economic development theory to the future real estate economic development, can China avoid the creation of new ghost cities, can China make the real estate economy out of the shadow of bubble economy.

To absorb existing ghost cities (vacant properties), the sharing economic theory should also be used. Along with comprehensive arrangements for economic development, it may be appropriate to arrange all people’s housing and working nationwide, especially the vulnerable groups in various cities. So we can achieve the win-win cooperation, all happy result. (So we can) achieve what I called the ""
Achieving Spacious Buildings with Numerous Units " the ideal of Datong society. Of course, due to the huge number of ghost cities and areas, the digestion of ghost cities will be a long-term task.

6.      Summary

The vacant property management is the key for the healthy development of real estate economy. The economic and social benefits of vacant property management are enormous. For example, vacant property management will bring Canadian property owners billions of dollars in profits (or billions of dollars in profit lost saving), will save billions of dollars in government spending for Canada. At the same time it will provide good living environments for a large number of members of our society.

Vacant property management has greater significances to China. , the activation of the entire ghost city property (vacant property management will create tens of billions to hundreds of billions economic benefits for China. The allocation and arrangement of the supporting economic activities will also create tens of billions to hundreds of billions economic benefits for China.

The social benefits of the activation of Ghost cities will liberate the general public and vulnerable groups for the second time. Their lives will open a new chapter on this. Therefore, developing real estate economy, development, construction is one aspect; the vacant property management is another more important aspect. Otherwise, the real estate economy will become a blind developed economy, a bubble economy, and eventually will lead to economic crises round by round.

1.   现状分析

房地产经济在各国的经济发展中均占有举足轻重的地位,房地产经济的良性发展也是各国经济良性发展,避免经济危机的必要保证。美国和西方的多次经济危机均是由于房地产经济的不良发展而造成的,例如:最近一次的美国20007 年的金融危机就是由于房地产经济的不良发展所造成的。在房地产经济管理中,对于空置物业的管理是最为关键的。因为空置物业是物业经济(房地产经济)泡沫之所在,是房地产经济不良发展之所在。因此很有必要对空置物业的管理进行深入的分析。

2.   房地产经济管理


3.   空置物业管理


3.1.                  空置物业的控制


3.2.                  空置物业的消化

在现实的房地产经济发展中,无论是什么经济情形(热和冷),许多物业均会存在空置的现象,尤其是高层物业。例如:2015年多伦多的公寓空置率大概是1.8% [2] . 据估计,加拿大全国共有约377000空置物业单元,实际上的数字可能是610000 [3]。温哥华市大概有20000个空置物业单位 [3]。某些空置物业可能是由于其所处的位置,高度,等等因素,几乎从未有被出租过。而现时多伦多共有90000多人在排队等候廉租屋 [3]将这些社会空置物业资源纳入公共服务系统,则空置物业就将能够物有所用。这不仅能够给空置物业的所有者带来相当的利润,为广大的社会成员提供良好的安居物业,同时还将为政府节省许多安居工程的费用。这将是一件合作共赢,皆大欢喜的事情。这就是我所说的“安得广厦千万间”的大同社会的理想。

4.   理论依据


4.1.                  有限经济发展理论


4.2.                  备战经济控制论


4.3.                  共享经济理论


5.   案例分析

5.1.                  物业经济的自我控制


5.2.                  中国的鬼城



6.   总结



鬼城资产盘活的社会效益在于将会使普通大众及弱势群体获得二次解放。 他们的人生将就此开启崭新的篇章。因此,发展房地产经济,开发,建设是一个方面,空置物业的管理是更重要的一个方面。不然的话,房地产经济就会成为盲目开发的经济,成为泡沫经济,最终导致一轮又一轮的经济危机。

[1]. Country Management - On Policy Amendment [国家管理 - 论政策的变更]

 -- Beizhan Liu

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