Economic Wheel – Beizhan Economic Control Theory [经济之轮 – 备战经济控制论]

Economic Wheel – Beizhan Economic Control Theory

[经济之轮 – 备战经济控制论] 

1. Introduction

I often compare our planet to we all owned the spacecraft sailing in the space. So the spacecraft's economy as the world economy and national economy, how shall we develop and control it? After I have proposed the limited economic development theory and the macroeconomic evaluation system, I will propose another branch of economic theory, namely, Beizhan Economic Control Theory.

2. The existed economic control theory

Regarding the economic control theory, of course, is not a new thing. The term "Economic control theory" was first proposed at the World Cybernetic Congress in Paris in 1952. In 1954, American mathematician RS Phillips began to use second-order ordinary differential equation to describe the macroeconomic system, and discussed the system's open-loop control and closed-loop control problem, using PID (proportional-integral-differential) control principle to improve the stability of economic policy. Economic control theory is a discipline to apply modern control theory and methods to study the evolution regular pattern and optimal control of economic systems; it is an important branch of control theory. Economic control theory includes the economic system modeling, simulation, identification, optimal control and sub-optimal control. Economic control theory emphasizes on using the point of views of holistic, dynamic, interrelated and coordinated development to study the economic system” ^[1].

3. The shortcomings of current economic control theory

I am very interested in automatic control theory in my youth age, and studied many relevant books, such as: system control theory, fuzzy control theory, and so on. Therefore, I know one or two about control theory. The shortcomings of the existing economic control theory lie in:

·         The existing economic control theory is based on assumptions, and not based facts. Its emphasis is on economic system simulation modeling, rather than factual modeling;

·         The existing economic control theory is not based on the monitoring of the current economic situation;

·         The existing economic control theory treats all economic systems as equivalent to the same economic system for mathematical simulation analysis and research does without differentiation and focus;

·         Most existing economic control theories are simulations of single economic policy, and confirmation of economic policy;

·         The guiding significance of the existing economic control theory to the real national economy is indirect and relatively weak;

4. Beizhan economic control theory

4.1. Concepts

As early as 2011, I advocated to buildup economics based on facts rather than assumptions, to establish a touchable economics. Beizhan economic control theory I proposed is part of the touchable economics what I advocated. Beizhan economic control theory is a kind economic control theory conducting all-round, focused analysis and research of real economy based on economic facts and the monitoring of economic facts, using a variety of economic levers to realize real-time self-regulation as much as possible. In order to distinguish the differences between this economic control theory and the existing economic control theory, so I named as Beizhan economic control theory.

4.2. Foundations

Beizhan economic control theory is mainly based on the following basis

·         The facts of the current economic situation

·         Beizhan national economic evaluation system

·         Product life cycle theory

·         Beizhan product value life cycle theory

·         Limited economic development theory

·         Ecological environmental cost theory

4.3. Content

4.3.1. Monitoring of economic realities

Before talking about the monitoring of economic realities, I will first clarify the concept of "real-time". The monitoring of the economic system can not, of course, be as accurate as the "real-time" concept in industrial control which has an accuracy of minute or second. Real-time monitoring of the economic system should be reasonable to have a year as unit of time.

The monitoring of economic realities is to collect a variety of economic indicators of an economic system. For national economy, it is to obtain different evaluation indicators of a national economic system and economic indicators of different industries (Beizhan national economic evaluation system), such as: Domestic Gross Produce (GDP), GROSS DOMESTIC COST (GDC) and GROSS DOMESTIC ENVIRONMENTAL COST (GDEC), the national economy bubble indicator （bubble degree/volume）, the national economic correlation indicator (Tightness Degree), and so on.

4.3.2. Analysis of economic evaluation indicators

After obtaining the various economic indicators of an economic system, it is necessary to analyze, calculate and evaluate various economic indicators, and find the appropriate control points and control levers, and realize the self-regulation of the economic system to the greatest extent.

4.3.2.1. Control point analysis and determination

Speaking on any system need to be controlled, first we need to choose the controllable system variables ^[2], that is, a system’s control points. Secondly, we need to determine the optimal value of system variables. Economic system control point selection refers to complete determination of an economic system’s various economic indicators, for the national economy concerned; it is the improvement of Beizhan national economic evaluation system. And then we need to determine the ideal values of various economic indicators of an economic system. This is the control point analysis and determination, such as: national economic bubble indicator, industry bubble indicator, tightness indicator, international indicator, environmental cost indicator, and so on, as well as their ideal values.

4.3.2.2. Analysis and determination of control levers

In a control system, to achieve the dynamic control and optimal control of the system, the most central part is the fully application of the feedback mechanism ^[2]. Then the feedback mechanism in economic system control is to choose different control levers (economic policies) for different control points and their ideal values. Such control levers should be economic levers that can enable an economic system to realize self-regulation as much as possible, for example: the vacant property tax I proposed for the real estate economy, and so on. This is the analysis and determination of control levers.

4.3.3. Establishment of economic model (Beizhan economic control model)

The economic model based on Beizhan economic control theory can be called as Beizhan economic control model, which mainly includes the model of economic system based on fact data, the model of evaluation system and the model of control levers.

4.4. Special content

Beizhan economic control theory is an economic theory which can cover the national economy, industrial economy and various economic subsystems, because the economic theories applied are all very fundamental, for example: product life cycle theory, product value life cycle theory, etc.

4.4.1. Application of product life cycle

With the application of product life cycle theory, economic structure control points can be determined, such as: emerging economy control point, lagged economy control point, economic structure control point, and so on. And we can find the best control levers, so as to achieve the scientific adjustment of economic structure, such as:

·         Introduction and cultivation of emerging economy

·         Upgrading traditional economy

·         Exiting lagged economy

4.4.2. Application of product value life cycle

With the application of product value life cycle theory, we can fundamentally determine the control point of economy’s bubble degree, and to achieve the control of the bubble economy, so as to eliminate the economic crisis, to achieve intensification and environmental protection property of economy.

4.4.3. The application of economic wheel

I will elaborate on the theory and concept of economic wheel in another paper. With the application of the concept of economic wheel, we can determine the internationalization indicator and the status control point of an economic system (input and output demand control point and control lever), so as to realize the scientific and orderly property of national economy internationalization (internal and external), for example:

·         Bridging with upstream economic wheels

·         Bridging with downstream economy wheels

·         Bridging with domestic economic wheels

5. Special principles

When determining economic control levers with Beizhan economic control theory, the following basic principles shall be emphasized particularly:

5.1. The establishment of control levers (economic policy) shall ensure adequate social employment

5.2. The establishment of control levers (economic policy) shall reduce inflation as much as possible

5.3. The establishment of control levers (economic policy) shall ensure equitable distribution of wealth

5.4. The establishment of control levers (economic policy) shall ensure fair participation and sharing of the economy among all members of society

6. Relationships with Beizhan school of thought

Beizhan economic control theory is not contradiction with the theory of ​​one macroeconomic theory of Beizhan school of thought. Beizhan economic control theory is also an independent branch of macroeconomic theory, it is based on economic facts and the monitoring of economic facts, it conducts all-round, focused analysis and research on real economy, it uses a variety of economic levers to realize real-time self-regulation of real economy as much as possible.

7. Significance

The significances of Beizhan economic control theory lie in:

·         The significance of real-time and comprehensive monitoring of the current status of economy operation

·         The significance of near real-time and focused control of the current status of economy operation

·         The scientific significance of selecting control levers (economic policy)

·         The direct significance of control over current economic operation

·         Guidance significance of real-time self-regulation of economic system

·         The scientific significance of determination of the internal relationships of an economic system and the external relationships

8. Summary

Beizhan economic control theory is another important contribution to Beizhan school of thought, Beizhan economic control theory will poke the clouds to see the blue sky, making us understand the status of the economic operation with crystal clear, so as to achieve the scientific nature, focusing nature, real-time nature, directness nature of the control on the current economic operation, and achieve self-regulation of the economic system as much as possible. Beizhan economic control theory will build the theoretical foundation for the economic control of we all owned the spacecraft sailing in the space, and will guide every country to establish independent and interrelated hierarchical economic control centers. This is the world economic management tomorrow. This is the direction we should strive. Of course, as a newly proposed economic theory, its covered fields are very extensive, it is impossible to fully elaborate it with one article. There are a lot of works need to be completed by experts in this field.

1.   引言

我时常将我们的地球比作我们人类的共有的航行在太空中的宇宙飞船。那么世界经济和国家经济作为飞船的经济我们又当如何进行发展和控制呢？在我提出了有限经济发展理论和国民经济评价体系之后，我在此文中将提出另外一个经济理论分支，即备战经济控制论。

2.   现有的经济控制论

就经济控制论来讲，当然不是什么新生事物。经济控制论一词最早在1952年巴黎召开的世界控制论大会上首先提出的。“1954年美国数学家R.S.菲利普斯开始用二阶常微分方程描述宏观经济系统，并讨论了系统的开环控制和闭环控制问题,采用PID（比例-积分-微分）控制原理来改善经济政策的稳定性。经济控制论是应用现代控制理论和方法来研究经济系统的演变规律和最优控制的学科，是控制论的一个重要分支。经济控制论的内容包括经济系统的建模、仿真、辨识、估计以至最优控制或次优控制。经济控制论强调用整体的、动态的、相互联系和协调发展的观点来研究经济系统。”^[1]

3.   现有的经济控制论的不足

我本人在青年时代就对自动控制理论很有兴趣，并钻研过许多相关的书籍，例如：系统控制理论，模糊控制理论，等等。因此，对控制理论也略知一二。现有的经济控制理论的不足在于：

• 现有的经济控制理论是基于假设的，而非基于事实的。其强调的是经济系统的仿真建模，而非事实建模；
• 现有的经济控制论不是建立在对现有经济现状的监控之上的；
• 现有的经济控制理论不加区别地，不分重点地将所有的经济系统等同于同样的经济系统来进行数学仿真分析与研究 ；
• 现有的经济控制理论大多是对单立经济政策的模拟，是对经济政策的确认；
• 现有的经济控制理论对现实国民经济的指导意义是间接的，是比较弱的；

4.   备战经济控制论

4.1.                  概念

我早在2011年就鼓吹要建立基于事实的经济学而非假设的经济学，要建立可触摸的经济学。我所提出的备战经济控制论就是我所鼓吹的可触摸的经济学的一部分。备战经济控制论就是基于经济事实和经济事实的监控对现实经济进行全方位的，重点突出的分析研究，并利用多种经济杠杆对现实经济尽可能地实现实时自我调节的一种经济控制理论。为了区别该经济控制理论同现有的经济控制理论的不同，故命名其为备战经济控制论。

4.2.                  基础

备战经济控制论主要是建立在以下基础之上的

• 经济现状的事实
• 备战国民经济评价体系
• 产品生命周期理论
• 备战产品价值生命周期理论
• 有限经济发展理论
• 生态环境成本论

4.3.                  内容

4.3.1.                     经济现实的监控

在谈论经济现实的监控之前，我首先来阐明一下“实时”的概念。对于经济系统的监控当然不能够像工业控制中“实时”的概念那样，达到一分一秒的精准，经济系统的实时监控以一年为时间单位应当是比较合理的。

经济现实的监控就是收集一个经济系统的各种经济指标。对于国民经济来讲，就是获取一个国民经济体系的不同的评价指标及各行业的经济指标（备战国民经济评价体系），例如：国民经济生产总值，国民经济生产总成本，国民经济生产环境总成本，国民经济泡沫性指标（泡沫度/量），国民经济相关性指标（紧密度），等等。

4.3.2.                     经济评价指标的分析

在获取了所需的一个经济系统的各种经济指标后，自然需要对各种经济指标进行分析，计算和评估，并寻找恰当的控制点和控制杠杆，并最大可能的实现经济系统的自我调控。

4.3.2.1.                        控制点分析及确定

对于任何一个需要控制的系统来讲，首先要选取的就是可控制的系统变量^[2]，也就是一个系统的控制点。其次要确定系统变量的最佳值。经济系统控制点的选取指的就是一个经济系统各种经济指标的完全确定，对于国民经济来讲，就是备战国民经济评价体系的完善。然后就是确定一个经济系统各种经济指标的理想值。这就是控制点的分析和确定。例如：国民经济的泡沫指标，行业经济泡沫指标，紧密度指标，国际化指标，环境成本指标，等等，以及它们的理想值。

4.3.2.2.                        控制杠杆的分析及确定

在一个控制系统中，要实现对系统的动态控制和最优控制，其最为核心的就是充分运用反馈机制^[2]。那么，经济系统控制中的反馈机制就是针对不同的控制点及其理想值来选取不同的控制杠杆（经济政策），这种控制杠杆应尽量是能够使一个经济系统实现自我调节的经济杠杆， 例如：我所提出的地产经济中的物业空置税，等等。这就是控制杠杆的分析与确定。

4.3.3.                     经济模型的建立（备战经济控制模型）

基于备战经济控制论来建立的经济模型就可以称之为备战经济控制模型，这主要包括：基于事实数据的经济系统的模型，评价体系的模型及控制杠杆的模型。

4.4.                  特别内容

备战经济控制论是一个可以覆盖国民经济，行业经济和各种经济子系统的经济理论，因为其所应用的经济理论都是很基本的，例如：产品生命周期理论，产品价值生命周期理论，等等。

4.4.1.                     产品生命周期的应用

通过运用产品生命周期的理论，确定经济结构控制点，例如：新兴经济控制点，落后经济控制点，经济结构控制点，等等。并寻找最佳的控制杠杆，从而实现经济结构调整的科学性，例如：

·         新兴经济的引入及培育

·         传统经济的升级

·         落后经济的退出

4.4.2.                     产品价值生命周期的应用

通过运用产品价值生命周期理论，可以从根本上确定经济的泡沫度控制点，并实现对泡沫经济的控制，从而消除经济危机，实现经济的集约性和环保性。

4.4.3.                     经济轮的应用

关于经济轮的理论和概念，我将在另外一篇论文中进行详细的阐述。通过经济轮概念的运用，可以确定一个经济系统的国际化指标及状态的控制点（输入与输出的需求控制点及控制杠杆），从而实现国民经济国际化的科学性和有序性（内部及外部），例如：

·         上行经济轮的衔接

·         下行经济轮的衔接

·         国内经济轮的衔接

5.   特别原则

利用备战经济控制论在确定经济的控制杠杆时，特别强调以下几个基本原则：

5.1.                  控制杠杆（经济政策）的确立要保证充分的社会就业

5.2.                  控制杠杆（经济政策）的确立要尽可能的减少通货膨胀

5.3.                  控制杠杆（经济政策）的确立要保证公平的财富分配

5.4.                  控制杠杆（经济政策）的确立要保证全体社会成员对于经济的公平的参与性和共享性

6.   与备战学派的关系

备战经济控制论同备战学派的一个宏观经济理论的思想并无矛盾。备战经济控制论也是宏观经济理论的一个独立分支学科，它是基于经济事实和经济事实的监控对现实经济进行全方位的，重点突出的分析研究，并利用多种经济杠杆对现实经济尽可能地进行实时自我调节的一种经济控制理论。

7.   意义

备战经济控制论的意义在于：

·         对于经济运行现状的监控的实时性和全面性意义

·         对于经济运行状况的控制的近实时性和重点性意义

·         选取控制杠杆（经济政策）的科学性意义

·         对于经济运行状况进行控制的直接性意义

·         对于经济系统实时自我调节的指导性意义

·         对于确立一个经济系统内部关系及外部关系的科学性意义

8.   总结

备战经济控制论是备战学派的又一重大贡献，备战经济控制论将拨开云雾见青天，使得我们对于经济运行现状了解的一清二楚，从而实现对于现实经济控制的科学性，重点性，实时性和直接性，并尽可能地实现经济系统的自我调节。备战经济控制论将构建我们人类的共有的航行在太空中的宇宙飞船的经济控制的理论基础，并进一步指导各国建立独立并相互关联的具有层次性的经济控制中心。这就是世界经济管理的明天。这就是我们要努力的方向。 当然，作为一个崭新提出的经济理论，其覆盖的领域是非常广泛的，一篇文章是不可能进行完全的阐述的。还有很多工作需要业内人士共同完成。

[1].http://wiki.mbalib.com/wiki/%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E6%8E%A7%E5%88%B6%E8%AE%BA

[2].http://baike.baidu.com/link?url=_y8FU8PeLtK1_xz9OLfdBJYm4W27LlHuDVr8DD_uzTYMaCLhc5PLHwzqil9BGbHixW3KLf2HfObTiEe4gqpHTePQGsK70o1HYuGKBSgO_RS73KDdnXjnYqWnz6koFOTr

  -- Beizhan Liu