Sunday, January 29, 2017
Economic Wheel – Stock Market - Sentry Theory 经济之轮 - 股票市场 - 哨兵理论
Economic Wheel – Stock Market - Sentry Theory
经济之轮 - 股票市场 - 哨兵理论
In this paper, the author proposed the Sentry
Theory, analyzed the determination property of the theoretical price and
the uncertainty property of the actual transaction price of the listed company
in-depth, and applied Beizhan business
valuation model to determine the theoretical price of the listed company.
Sentry theory further sets out sentinel value (maximum and minimum value) for the theoretical price of the listed company
and analyzed the out of price scope
problem. Sentry theory will minimize the unfairness and injustice in the
stock market, eliminate the stock market bubbles as much as possible, reduce
the financial risk of the listed company to the greatest extent, so as to
perfect the existing stock market management mechanism and reduce the emergence
probability of financial crisis, and began
to realize the rational prosperity.
1.
Introduction
Robert Schiller, the world-renowned economist, stated in his book <<Irrational Exuberance>>, "stock market pricing has not yet formulated to be a perfect science"[1]. So, how do we achieve rational prosperity, how do we achieve the scientific nature of stock pricing? Of course, the rational prosperity of the stock market shall also include the suppression of random factors. Here I would like to propose the sentry theory, and apply Beizhan business valuation model to determine the theoretical price of the listed company to determine, and further propose the sentinel value of the theoretical price of listed company (maximum and minimum value), so as to take a solid step for achieving rational prosperity.
2. The Value and Price of Listed Company
2.1. Market Value of Listed Company
The market value of a listed company refers to the total market value of the shares issued by a listed company based on the market price, which is calculated by multiplying the market price of each share by the number of shares issued. [2]
2.2. Stock Price of
Listed Company
The stock price of a listed company is the price at which the shares are traded on the stock market. The stock price is divided into the theoretical price and the market price. The theoretical price of the stock is not equal to the market price of the stock. There is a considerable gap between the two. [3]
2.3. Valuation Value of Listed Company
The valuation value of a listed company should have the same connotation as the valuation value of a non-listed company, which can be defined as the value of a listed company valued with Beizhan business valuation model.
2.4. The Theoretical Price of Listed Company
The theoretical price of listed company is the market value of a listed company calculated based on the theoretical price of its stock. The theoretical price of a listed company's stock should be the valuation value of each stock after the valuation value of the listed company is equally shared by the issued stock shares. Therefore, the theoretical price of listed company is the value of its valuation value.
3. Beizhan Business Valuation Model
3.1. Beizhan Business Valuation Model
Beizhan business valuation model is the fact plus growth model. The fact part is the valuation based on the current resource characteristics and current profit characteristics of a business. The growth part is the valuation on the profit growth characteristics and resource expansion characteristics of a business. [4]
3.2. Coherence between Stock Price Fluctuation Factors and Beizhan Business Valuation Model
Since the theoretical price of a listed company is its valuation value, which is the value of the listed company valuated with the unified Beizhan business valuation model, so fluctuation of the stock price of the listed company should be consistent with Beizhan business valuation model. That is to say that the fluctuated stock price of listed companies shall also be able to be calculated with Beizhan business valuation model, that is, the theoretical calculability of the instantaneous stock price of a listed company. Now we analyze such consistency as follows [5] [6] [7]:
3.2.1. Factors Consistent with the Fact Part Valuation
New Products – Current Core Resources
Higher-than-expected earnings – Current Profit
Policy Resources - Strength Value
Human Resources - Current Core Resources
3.2.2. Factors Consistent with the Growth Part Valuation
Expected
Growth - Profit Growth
Policy Resources - Profit Growth
Market Competition - Profit Growth
Macroeconomic Situation - Profit Growth
Market Political Ecology - Profit Growth
Policy Resources - Profit Growth
Market Competition - Profit Growth
Macroeconomic Situation - Profit Growth
Market Political Ecology - Profit Growth
(When the above factors
change, they can be valued in accordance with the fact part valuation)
3.2.3. Other Factors
The following factors are mostly psychological factors of stock transaction, mainly affecting the transaction price of listed company, and can not determine the theoretical price of listed company:
- Investor sentiment
- Takeover offer
- Litigation (there is a realistic calculation of the cost, so this factor is partly a part of the fact part valuation)
- Transaction agents
4.
Sentry Theory
Sentry theory is a theory to limit the scope of the theoretical price fluctuation of a
listed company based on Beizhan business valuation model. Of course, this
theory also applies to non-listed companies.
4.1.
Determination of the Share Price of the Listed Company
4.1.1. The Theoretical Price of Stock of Listed Company
4.1.1. The Theoretical Price of Stock of Listed Company
The theoretical price of a listed company's stock is defined in 2.4. The
instantaneous price of the theoretical price of listed company’s stock due to
fluctuation factors can be calculated, but it is unrealistic, and is not
necessary.
4.1.2. The Transaction Price of Stock of Listed Company
Because there are many uncertain factors in the stock trading, the
transaction price of the stock of listed company is inconsistent with the
theoretical price. These uncertainty factors are mainly due to the randomness
of the transaction, speculativeness, temporalness, competitiveness, and so on.
Trader's psychological factor is also an uncertain factor.
4.2. Determination of Stock Price Scope
At a certain moment, the theoretical price of a listed company should be the only, but the transaction price may not be consistent with its theoretical price. A listed company's stock price should be in a scope, at least in theory; this scope is the maximum and minimum value of the transaction stock price of a listed company, that is, sentinel value. As the value of a listed company is dynamically changed in the market competition, therefore, at different moments, a listed company's sentinel value is also dynamically changed.
4.2.1. The Maximum Value
of the Transaction Stock Price
The maximum value of the transaction stock price of the listed company can be defined as the theoretical price of the listed company at a certain valuation moment. In other words, the maximum transaction stock price of a listed company is its theoretical price.
4.2.2. The Minimum Value of the Transaction Stock Price
The minimum value of the transaction stock price of the listed company can be defined as the value of the fact part valuation in the theoretical price of the listed company at a certain moment. That is to say that a listed company's minimum transaction price can not be less than the value of the fact part valuation.
4.2.3. Out of Price Scope Management
In real transactions, a listed company's transaction stock price may break above mentioned scope of the maximum and minimum value scope, this is the out of the price scope issue, the stock trading over the maximum value of transaction stock price is the manifestation of the stock market bubble, the stock trading breaking the minimum value of the transaction stock price is the manifestation of the loss of entrepreneur’s core asset. So it is necessary to manage the out of the price scope issue. Here two levels of management can be conducted, the first level is transaction management within the scope of the sentinel values, which is the normal transaction management; one is the transaction management outside the scope of the sentinel values. Transaction outside the sentinel values is generally not allowed, the specific approaches can be further explored by the financial regulatory authorities. Such as voluntary, undisclosed, restricted transactions, and so on.
4.3. Summary
Sentry theory provides a theoretical foundation for out of price scope management, eliminating the stock market bubbles and preventing financial risks. Sentry theory minimizes the interference of random factors on stock trading to the max degree and increases the certainty of valuation.
5. Similar Concepts
In the theories of security market, there are several theories similar to sentry theory, here the author simply introduce them in order to show the differences:
5.1. Box Theory
Box theory is a theory proposed by American Nicolas Darvas according to his security market practice. "Nicolas Darvas thinks stock prices generally fluctuate within a certain range, creating a box of stock prices for fluctuation. When the stock price slips down to the bottom of the box, it will be supported by buying; when the stock price rises to the top of the box, it will be under pressure to selling. Once the stock price effectively break the top or bottom of the original box, the stock price will enter a new stock box to run, the top or bottom of the original stock will become the important support level and pressure level. Therefore, as long as the stock price rose and rushed to another box imagined by your heart, you should buy; in the other hand, you should sell." [8]
5.2. Price Change Limitation
Price change limitation is the transaction restriction measure implemented when the transaction price of a listed company in the stock market changed out of a certain range in a day. This kind practice of stock market management is very common in China and in many other countries around the world. [9]
5.3. Fusing Mechanism
"Fusing refers to stopping the transaction in a full day or within a specified period of time when the market price changes touch a specified range. That is to say, the exchange market does not accept orders which is over the rising price limit and below the falling price limit, and fusing is just the temporary fluctuation restriction before this maximum fluctuation limitation, fusing has a certain activation condition.[10] This is the current fusing mechanism.
5.4. Differences
Box theory is a kind empirical theory proposed based on the stock market trading activities; it is a technical observation on the outside manifestation of the stock price. The similarity with the sentry theory I proposed is inevitable, and this kind similarity just proves the correctness of my sentry theory.
Change limitation and fusing mechanism all are security market regulatory mechanisms, such regulatory mechanisms are implemented for the protection of investors’ interests and stable market, is purely implemented for human’s needs. Such regulatory measures lack the support of theoretical foundation, and the sentry theory precisely provides the necessary theoretical foundation for them. Fusing mechanism is almost exactly the same with the out of scope price management I my proposed.
6. Significances
Sentry theory has laid a theoretical foundation for the calculability of the instantaneous stock price of listed company, which lays a theoretical foundation for the calculability of stock market bubble, and provides the necessary theoretical foundation for the implementation of financial regulatory measures. Sentry theory can completely eliminate the collapse crisis, the financial crisis, and the completely realize the rationality and stability of financial market, achieve the rational prosperity we desired.
作者在本论文中提出了哨兵理论,对上市公司的理论价格的确定性和实际成交价的不确定性进行了深入的分析,并将备战商业评估模式应用于上市公司理论价格 的确定。哨兵理论进一步提出了上市公司理论价格的哨兵值(最大值和最小值),并分析了溢价的问题。哨兵理论将最大可能地减少股票市场中的不公平和不公正性,最大可能地彻底消除股市泡沫,最大可能地减少上市公司的金融风险,从而完善现有的股票市场管理机制,降低金融危机所出现的几率,并开始实现理性化的繁荣。
1. 前言
世界著名的经济学家罗伯特∙席勒在其著作《非理性繁荣》中提到说“股市定价并未形成一门完美的科学”[1] 。那么,我们如何实现理性的繁荣,我们如何实现股票定价的科学性呢?当然股票市场理性的繁荣还应当包括对于随机因素的抑制。这里我提出哨兵理论,并将备战商业评估模式应用于上市公司理论价格的确定,并进一步提出了上市公司理论价格的哨兵值(最大值和最小值),从而为实现理性的繁荣迈出坚实的一步。
2. 上市公司的价值与价格
2.1. 上市公司的市值
上市公司的市值是指一家上市公司的发行股份按照市场价格计算出来的股票总价值,其计算方法为每股股票的市场价格乘以发行总股数。[2]
2.2. 上市公司的股票价格
上市公司的股票价格是指股票在证券市场上买卖的价格。股票价格分为理论价格和市场价格,股票的理论价格不等于股票的市场价格,两者具有相当大的差距。[3]
2.3. 上市公司的评估价值
上市公司的评估价值应当同非上市公司的评估价值具有相同的内涵,这里,可以将其定义为利用统一的备战商业评估模式所评估出的上市公司价值。
2.4. 上市公司的理论价格
上市公司的理论价格就是一个上市公司依据其股票的理论价格而计算出来的市值。上市公司股票的理论价格应当是上市公司的评估价值均摊后每一股股票所获得的评估价值。因此,上市公司的理论价格就是其评估价值。
3. 备战商业评估模式
3.1. 备战商业评估模式
备战商业评估模式就是事实加增长模式,事实部分就是针对一个商业的现实资源特征和现实盈利特征而进行的评估,增长部分就是针对一个商业的盈利增长特征和资源扩张特张而进行的评估。[4]
3.2. 股价波动因素与备战商业评估模式的一致性
由于上市公司的理论价格就是其评估价值,也就是利用统一的备战商业评估模式所评估出的上市公司价值,因此,上市公司股票价格的波动应当同备战商业评估模式相一致,也就是说波动的上市公司股票价格也应当可以利用备战商业评估模式计算出来,也就是上市公司瞬时股票价格的理论上的可计算性。下面就此一致性进行分析[5][6][7]:
3.2.1.
与事实部分评估相一致的因素
新产品 – 现实核心资源
高于预期的盈利 – 现实盈利状况
政策资源 – 力量价值
人力资源 – 现实核心资源
3.2.2.
与增长部分评估相一致的因素
预期的增长 – 盈利增长状况
政策资源 - 盈利增长状况
市场竞争形态 - 盈利增长状况
宏观经济现状 - 盈利增长状况
市场政治生态 - 盈利增长状况
(当以上因素发生改变时,则可以按照事实部分评估来处理)
3.2.3.
其他因素
以下因素大多属于股票交易的心理因素,主要影响上市公司的成交价,并不能够决定上市公司的理论价格:
·
投资者情绪
·
收购要约
·
法律诉讼(这里有一定的现实成本的计算,因此,这一因素部分地属于事实部分的评估)
·
交易代理
4. 哨兵理论
哨兵理论是建立在备战商业评估模式之上,对上市公司的理论价格的波动范围进行限定的一个理论。当然这一理论也同样适用于非上市公司。
4.1. 上市公司股价的确定
4.1.1.
上市公司股票的理论价格
上市公司股票的理论价格见2.4中的定义。上市公司股票的理论价格由于波动因素而产生的瞬时价格也是可以计算的,但却是不现实的,没有必要的。
4.1.2.
上市公司股票的成交价格
由于在股票交易中,存在有许多不确定性的因素,上市公司股票的成交价格同理论价格是不一致的。
这些不确定的因素主要来自于交易的随机性,投机性,时间性,竞争性,等等。交易者的心理因素也是不确定的因素之一。
4.2. 股价范围的确定
在某一个时间断面上,一个上市公司的理论价格应当是唯一的,但其成交价格却未必同其理论价格相一致。一个上市公司的成交股价应当是在一个范围内,至少从理论上来讲,这个范围就是一个上市公司成交股价的最大值和最小值,也就是哨兵值。由于上市企业的价值是在市场竞争中动态变化的,因此,在不同的时间断面上,一个上市企业的哨兵值也是在动态的变化着的。
4.2.1.
成交股价的最大值
一个上市公司成交股价的最大值可以定义为该上市公司在某一个评估时间断面的理论价格。也就是说一个上市公司的成交股价的最大值就是其理论价格。
4.2.2.
成交股价的最小值
一个上市公司成交股价的最小值可以定义为该上市公司在某一个评估时间断面的理论价格中所评估出的事实部分的评估价值。也就是说一个上市公司的成交价格最小是不能够小于其事实部分的评估价值的。
4.2.3.
溢价管理
在现实交易中,一个上市公司的成交股价有可能会突破以上所说的最大值和最小值的范围,这就是溢价的问题,突破成交股价最大值的股票交易是股市泡沫的表现,突破成交股价最小值的股票交易是企业核心资产流失的表现。因此很有必要对溢价问题进行管理。这里可以进行两个层次的管理,第一层次是哨兵值范围内的交易管理,也就是正常的交易管理;一个是哨兵值外的交易的管理。哨兵值外的交易一般是不允许的,具体办法可以由金融监管部门进行进一步的探讨。例如:自愿的,不公开的,受限制的交易,等等。
4.3. 总结
哨兵理论为溢价管理,消除股市泡沫,防范金融风险提供了理论的依据。哨兵理论最大程度地
抑制了随机因素对股票交易的干扰,增加了估价的确定性。
5. 相似的概念
在证券市场理论中,有几个同哨兵理论相类似的理论,这里作者对他们简单地加以介绍,以示区别:
5.1. 箱型理论
箱型理论是由美国人戴维斯∙尼古拉根据其在证券市场交易中的实践所提出的一个理论。“达韦斯·尼古拉认为股价一般是在一定的范围内波动,这样就形成一个股价运行的箱体。当股价滑落到箱体的底部时会受到买盘的支撑,当股价上升到箱体的顶部时会受到卖盘的压力。一旦股价有效突破原箱体的顶部或底部,股价就会进入一个新的股票箱里运行,原股票箱的顶部或底部将成为重要的支撑位和压力位。因此,只要股价上扬并冲到了心里所想象的另外一个箱子,就应买进;反之,则应卖出。”
[8]
涨跌限价就是一个上市公司在证券市场上的交易价格在一天内的涨跌幅度超过某一个限定范围后而进行的限制交易的措施。这种股市管理的实践在中国和世界上其他许多国家都是非常普遍的。[9]
5.3. 熔断制度
“熔断是指市场变动价格触及到某个规定幅度时,实施停止全天或者规定时间段内交易。也就是说交易所不接受超过涨停价的买单和低于跌停价的卖单,而熔断则是在这个最大波动限制之前的暂时性波动限制,熔断有一定启动条件。”。
[10] 这就是现实的熔断制度。
5.4. 区别
箱型理论是基于证券市场交易活动而提出的一种经验性的理论,是对股票成交价格外在表象的一种技术化的观察。同我所提出的哨兵理论的相似性是必然的,这种相似性恰恰证明了我的哨兵理论的正确性。
涨跌限价和熔断制度都是证券市场监管机制,这种监管机制是出于对投资者利益的保护和市场的稳定而实施的,是纯粹出于人为的需要而实施的。这种监管措施缺乏理论基础的支持,而哨兵理论也恰恰为他们提供了所必需的理论基础。 熔断制度同我所提出的溢价管理几乎是完全一致的。
6. 意义
哨兵理论为上市公司瞬时股价的可计算性奠定了理论基础,为股市泡沫的可计算性奠定了理论基础,为金融监管措施的实施提供了必要的理论依据。哨兵理论可以彻底地消除崩盘危机,金融危机,并彻底地实现金融市场的合理和稳定,实现我们所期望的理性的繁荣。
[4]. Beizhan Liu (2016). <<On the Uniqueness of Business
Valuation>> in <<Policy Framework>> (pp 55-56)
[7].https://www.google.ca/search?q=financial+market+fluctuations&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&gws_rd=cr&ei=xUJ6WNO1BImZjwTV6qz4Dg#q=what+causes+stock+prices+to+change
Saturday, January 28, 2017
Saturday, January 21, 2017
Saturday, January 14, 2017
Saturday, January 7, 2017
Sunday, January 1, 2017
Country Management – Political Election - Equitable Election and Fund-Raising Mechanism Together on Beizhan Election Financial System 国家管理 – 政治选举 – 公平选举与筹款机制 兼论备战选举财经体系
Country Management – Political Election - Equitable Election and Fund-Raising Mechanism
Together on Beizhan Election Finance System
国家管理 – 政治选举 – 公平选举与筹款机制
兼论备战选举财经体系
1.
Realistic Election Financial System
In my previous article <<Election Politics and Head-Hunting Politics>> [1], I proposed Beizhan General Election System, which is an advocate to improve the existing election system from the perspective of human resource management mainly. So, what can be done to develop and perfect the election fund-raising mechanism and the election consumption mechanism in the real election process?
1.1. Election
fund-raising mechanism
Election fund-raising mechanism in reality is to raise political contributions from corporations and individuals. In terms of political contributions, in addition to election political donations, there are also routine political contributions to parties.
1.2. Election consumption mechanism
The election consuming mechanism in reality is that every candidate is basically to be responsible for his/her own expenses; party activities expenses are also to be afforded by the party itself.
1.3. Problems existed in reality
Current election financial mechanism has following problems in the two aspects:
1). Fairness issue
In terms of political fund-raising, some candidates can get more political contributions, some can not, then in election consumption, naturally some candidates will have more opportunities to promote themselves, and some can not, this is obviously not fair, this is contrary to the complete democratic spirit.
On the other hand, it is the political responsibility and obligation of
every voter to participate in and support democratic politics. However, in case
of election contributions, some voters have political contributions and some do
not. Some voters contribute more, and some voters contribute less, this is also
obviously not fair.
2). Regulation violation issue
In the process of political donation, we often hear this kind or that kind illegal fundraising events; political contribution scandals, and so on. In other words, this process is very easy to go wrong.
3). Solidarity issue
Since the political contributions of different parties and candidates come from a variety of donors, in order to win the donors, it is natural that there will be two kind mutual struggling results. One is the struggle for the indecisive donors; one is the struggle of the party for the interests of the stable donors, this kind struggles ultimately will be manifested in the struggle of the industries.
4). Decent issue
In terms of contributions, no matter what kind reasons, it is the matter of reaching out or speaking out to others for money, regardless of the fundraiser's official position level, reputation, it will make people feel not very decent. In some large gatherings, only a slight contribution was received, it is really a loss of face.
2. Beizhan Election Finance
System
To solve the above problems, it is necessary to improve the existing election financial system. Here, I would like to propose Beizhan election finance system. Beizhan election finance system is a completely fair, clean, decent, united election finance system. When this election finance system integrated with Beizhan general election system, it will achieve the best thrift result.
2.1. Beizhan general election system
With the application of pre-requirements for candidates, the number of candidates can be controlled. So the overall budget for the elections can be controlled.
2.2. Beizhan election finance system
Beizhan election finance system mainly includes the following contents:
2.2.1. Political responsibility tax (Political obligation tax)
Political election is the responsibility and obligation of every voter. Every voter also enjoys the country's political management services in different levels, so every voter has the obligation to pay a slight contribution to the political election. Therefore, I advocate the establishment of political responsibility tax (or political obligation tax). The political responsibility tax can be levied every four years; the tax rate can be about 0.5%. The max value of political responsibility tax can not be over $1,250, etc. Details can be decided according to demand. So that the fairness of election fundraising can be achieved, and so on. For every voter, it is affordable. For example: for a voter with an annual income of $50,000, his/her every four year’s political contribution is about: $250.
2.2.2. Standard equitable election consumption distribution mechanism (uniform system)
When having sufficient funding for elections, how can we fairly use the election fund? I advocate standard equitable election consumption distribution, which is the so-called uniform system. The election resources and services for each candidate are the same, such as: advertisements, propaganda, speeches, mass activities, etc., just like each candidate gets a standardized uniform. Each candidate will also receive the same financial compensation after the election, which is what I mentioned paid election. To do so, you can avoid the drawbacks of financial reimbursement system.
2.2.3. Election consumption management system
In specific operation, the political responsibility tax, of course, shall be managed by the revenue agency. Election consumption can be managed by the Constituency Administration Center under the leadership of the Election Bureau.
3. Significance
The advantages of Beizhan election finance
system lie in multiple aspects, such as:
3.1. Fairness
The election resources acquired by each candidate are completely equal. Voters contribute same proportion of political contributions (political responsibility tax) according to their incomes, this is also reasonable. Relatively wealthy voters shall also take a little bit more political obligations and responsibilities.
3.2. Integrity
Beizhan election finance system can minimize and eliminate the political contribution scandals to the max degree.
3.3. Intensiveness
Enterprises will never have the burden of political contributions; political frictions among industries will be removed, individual voter’s financial burden is not large either.
3.4. Standardization
The uniform system management implemented by the Constituency Administration Center under the leadership of Election Bureau, can have unified arrangements and achieve standardized business-like operation.
3.5. Intensiveness
The centralized procurement of election resources and services can be achieved, so as to achieve the intensiveness of election.
3.6. Decency
Candidates and parties can completely eliminate or reduce disgraceful political contribution activities. Election activities will also be more formal and decent.
3.7. Participation
As each candidate will acquire equal election resources and services, the voters’ participation rate will be extended greatly. Since voters will not worry about to be requested for donations when participating political activities, voter’s willingness and behaviors to participate political activities will also be greatly increased.
3.8 Extensiveness
As the election resources and services are uniformly planned and uniformly distributed, and election expenses are quite sufficient, the contacts between candidates and voters will be more extensive.
3.9. Solidarity
The establishment of Beizhan election finance system, makes the struggles among different parties and candidates caused by political contributions to be disappeared. Thus the solidarity of party and country will be enhanced. The battles among industries will also come to an end.
3.10. Economic Benefits
The accumulation of every four year political responsibility taxes after political consumption, can be operated in the form of a fund, it may eventually become a huge amount of national fund (billions or several 10 billions), and earn further profits for the country. Adequate election fund will also further promote the media economy.
1. 现实的选举财经体系
在我以前的文章《选举政治与猎头政治》[1] 一文中,我提出了备战普选体制,这主要是从人力资源管理的角度来完善现有的选举体制的一种主张。那么,在现实的选举过程中,在选举筹款机制和选举消费机制方面,又有什么可以发展和完善的呢?
1.1.
选举筹款机制
现实的选举筹款机制是通过企业和个人的政治捐款来实现的。就政治捐款而言,除了选举政治捐款外,还有日常的党团政治捐款。
1.2.
选举消费机制
现实的选举消费机制基本上是参选人自我负责其开销的,党团活动也是由党团自我负责其费用的。
1.3.
现实存在的问题
现实的选举财经机制在两个方面存在如下问题:
1)。公平性问题
就政治筹款而言,有的参选人能够获得较多的政治捐款,有的却不能够,那么在选举消费上,自然就会有的参选人有较多的机会宣传自己,有的却不能够,这显然是不公平的,
有悖于完全的民主精神的。
从另外一个方面讲,参与和支持民主政治,是每一个选民的政治责任和义务,但就选举捐款而言,有的选民有政治捐款,有的却没有。有的选民捐得多,
有的选民捐得少,这显然也是不公平的。
2)。违规性问题
在政治捐款过程中,我们总是时常听到这样或那样的违规筹款事件,政治献金丑闻,
等等。也就是说, 这一过程是很容易出问题的。
3)。团结性问题
由于不同的党团及参选人的政治捐款来自于各种各样的的捐款人,为了能够争取到捐款人,就很自然地会出现两种互相争斗的结果。一是参选人为争取不固定的捐款人的斗争,一是党团为了固定的捐款人的利益而进行的斗争,这种斗争最终就表现在行业的斗争。
4)。体面性问题
就捐款而言,无论是什么样的理由,都是要伸手或开口向他人要钱的事情,无论募捐者的官位高低,名声大小,都会让人觉得不很体面。有的大型集会,却只收到些微的捐款,实在是让人很失面子。
2.
备战选举财经体系
要解决以上的问题,就很有必要完善现有的选举财经体系。在此,我提出备战选举财经体系。备战选举财经体系是一种完全公平的,廉洁的,体面的,团结的选举财经体系。这一选举财经体系一定要和备战普选体制结合起来,才会达到最佳的节约的效果。
2.1.
备战普选体制
通过参选人预先要求的使用,使得参选人的数量得以控制。从而使选举的总体预算得到控制。
2.2.
备战选举财经体系
备战选举财经体系主要包括以下内容:
2.2.1.
政治责任税(政治义务税)
政治选举是每一个选民的责任和义务。每一个选民也都不同层度地享用国家政治管理的服务,因此,每一个选民都有义务为政治选举付出些微的奉献。所以,我主张设立政治责任税(或政治义务税)。政治责任税可以每四年征收一次,税率可以在0.5%左右。政治责任税的税款额度最多不超过1,250元,等等。具体可以因需而定。这样就可以实现选举筹款的公平性,等等。对于每一个选民来讲,也是可以承受的。例如:一个年收入5万的选民,每四年一次的政治捐款大概为:250元。
2.2.2.
选举消费标准化公平分配机制(制服体制)
在有了充足的选举经费之后,如何公平地使用选举经费呢?我主张选举消费标准化公平分配机制,也就是所谓的制服体制。每个参选人所能够获得的选举资源和服务都是相同的, 例如:广告,宣传,演讲,群众活动,等等,就像每个参选人都获得一个标准化的制服一样。每个参选人在选举结束后也都给与相同的经济补偿,这也就是我所讲的有酬劳的选举。这样做,就可以避免财务报销制的弊端。
2.2.3.
选举消费管理体制
在具体的运行操作中,政治责任税当然由税局负责管理。选举消费可以由选举局领导下的选区管理中心来实施管理。
3.
意义
备战选举财经体系的优越性是多方面的,例如:
3.1.
公平性
每一个参选人所获得选举资源完全平等。选民的政治责任税因为其不同的收入而贡献相同比例的政治捐款(政治责任税),也是合理的。相对富裕的选民也应当承担更大的政治义务和责任。
3.2.
廉洁性
备战选举财经体系可以最大程度地减少和消除政治献金丑闻。
3.3.
节约性
企业永无政治捐款之负担,去除行业政治内耗,选民个人的财务负担也不大。
3.4.
标准化
在选举局领导下的选区管理中心来实施的制服制的管理,可以统一安排,实现标准化的商业似的运作。
3.5.
集约性
选举资源和服务可以实现集中采购,从而实现选举的集约性。
3.6.
体面性
参选人和党团可以完全取消或减少不体面的政治捐款活动。选举活动也将更为正规和体面。
3.7.
参与度
由于每一个政治参选人均可获得相同的选举资源和服务,选民的参与度由此将会大大地扩大。同时,由于选民不再担心参与政治活动会被要求政治捐款,选民参与政治活动的意愿和行为将大大增加。
3.8.
广泛性
由于选举资源和服务是统一规划和统一分配的,而且,选举经费十分充足,参选人和选民的接触将更为广泛。
3.9.
团结性
备战选举财经体系的建立,使得由于不同的党团及参选人因由政治捐款的争斗得以消失。从而增强了党团和国家的团结性。行业之间的争斗也将寿终正寝。
3.10.
经济利益
每四年一度的政治责任税在政治消费后的积累,可以以一种基金的形式来经营,最终可能会成为一数额巨大的国家基金(几十亿或几百亿),为国家赚取进一步的利润。充足的选举经费也必将进一步促进媒体经济的发展。
[1]. Beizhan Liu (2016) <<Election Politics and Head-Hunting
Politics>> in <<Policy Framework>> (pp. 143-162)
-- Beizhan Liu
-- Beizhan Liu
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