Economic Wheel – Stock Market - Sentry Theory
经济之轮 - 股票市场 - 哨兵理论
In this paper, the author proposed the Sentry
Theory, analyzed the determination property of the theoretical price and
the uncertainty property of the actual transaction price of the listed company
in-depth, and applied Beizhan business
valuation model to determine the theoretical price of the listed company.
Sentry theory further sets out sentinel value (maximum and minimum value) for the theoretical price of the listed company
and analyzed the out of price scope
problem. Sentry theory will minimize the unfairness and injustice in the
stock market, eliminate the stock market bubbles as much as possible, reduce
the financial risk of the listed company to the greatest extent, so as to
perfect the existing stock market management mechanism and reduce the emergence
probability of financial crisis, and began
to realize the rational prosperity.
1.
Introduction
Robert Schiller, the world-renowned economist, stated in his book <<Irrational Exuberance>>, "stock market pricing has not yet formulated to be a perfect science"[1]. So, how do we achieve rational prosperity, how do we achieve the scientific nature of stock pricing? Of course, the rational prosperity of the stock market shall also include the suppression of random factors. Here I would like to propose the sentry theory, and apply Beizhan business valuation model to determine the theoretical price of the listed company to determine, and further propose the sentinel value of the theoretical price of listed company (maximum and minimum value), so as to take a solid step for achieving rational prosperity.
2. The Value and Price of Listed Company
2.1. Market Value of Listed Company
The market value of a listed company refers to the total market value of the shares issued by a listed company based on the market price, which is calculated by multiplying the market price of each share by the number of shares issued. [2]
2.2. Stock Price of
Listed Company
The stock price of a listed company is the price at which the shares are traded on the stock market. The stock price is divided into the theoretical price and the market price. The theoretical price of the stock is not equal to the market price of the stock. There is a considerable gap between the two. [3]
2.3. Valuation Value of Listed Company
The valuation value of a listed company should have the same connotation as the valuation value of a non-listed company, which can be defined as the value of a listed company valued with Beizhan business valuation model.
2.4. The Theoretical Price of Listed Company
The theoretical price of listed company is the market value of a listed company calculated based on the theoretical price of its stock. The theoretical price of a listed company's stock should be the valuation value of each stock after the valuation value of the listed company is equally shared by the issued stock shares. Therefore, the theoretical price of listed company is the value of its valuation value.
3. Beizhan Business Valuation Model
3.1. Beizhan Business Valuation Model
Beizhan business valuation model is the fact plus growth model. The fact part is the valuation based on the current resource characteristics and current profit characteristics of a business. The growth part is the valuation on the profit growth characteristics and resource expansion characteristics of a business. [4]
3.2. Coherence between Stock Price Fluctuation Factors and Beizhan Business Valuation Model
Since the theoretical price of a listed company is its valuation value, which is the value of the listed company valuated with the unified Beizhan business valuation model, so fluctuation of the stock price of the listed company should be consistent with Beizhan business valuation model. That is to say that the fluctuated stock price of listed companies shall also be able to be calculated with Beizhan business valuation model, that is, the theoretical calculability of the instantaneous stock price of a listed company. Now we analyze such consistency as follows [5] [6] [7]:
3.2.1. Factors Consistent with the Fact Part Valuation
New Products – Current Core Resources
Higher-than-expected earnings – Current Profit
Policy Resources - Strength Value
Human Resources - Current Core Resources
3.2.2. Factors Consistent with the Growth Part Valuation
Expected
Growth - Profit Growth
Policy Resources - Profit Growth
Market Competition - Profit Growth
Macroeconomic Situation - Profit Growth
Market Political Ecology - Profit Growth
Policy Resources - Profit Growth
Market Competition - Profit Growth
Macroeconomic Situation - Profit Growth
Market Political Ecology - Profit Growth
(When the above factors
change, they can be valued in accordance with the fact part valuation)
3.2.3. Other Factors
The following factors are mostly psychological factors of stock transaction, mainly affecting the transaction price of listed company, and can not determine the theoretical price of listed company:
- Investor sentiment
- Takeover offer
- Litigation (there is a realistic calculation of the cost, so this factor is partly a part of the fact part valuation)
- Transaction agents
4.
Sentry Theory
Sentry theory is a theory to limit the scope of the theoretical price fluctuation of a
listed company based on Beizhan business valuation model. Of course, this
theory also applies to non-listed companies.
4.1.
Determination of the Share Price of the Listed Company
4.1.1. The Theoretical Price of Stock of Listed Company
4.1.1. The Theoretical Price of Stock of Listed Company
The theoretical price of a listed company's stock is defined in 2.4. The
instantaneous price of the theoretical price of listed company’s stock due to
fluctuation factors can be calculated, but it is unrealistic, and is not
necessary.
4.1.2. The Transaction Price of Stock of Listed Company
Because there are many uncertain factors in the stock trading, the
transaction price of the stock of listed company is inconsistent with the
theoretical price. These uncertainty factors are mainly due to the randomness
of the transaction, speculativeness, temporalness, competitiveness, and so on.
Trader's psychological factor is also an uncertain factor.
4.2. Determination of Stock Price Scope
At a certain moment, the theoretical price of a listed company should be the only, but the transaction price may not be consistent with its theoretical price. A listed company's stock price should be in a scope, at least in theory; this scope is the maximum and minimum value of the transaction stock price of a listed company, that is, sentinel value. As the value of a listed company is dynamically changed in the market competition, therefore, at different moments, a listed company's sentinel value is also dynamically changed.
4.2.1. The Maximum Value
of the Transaction Stock Price
The maximum value of the transaction stock price of the listed company can be defined as the theoretical price of the listed company at a certain valuation moment. In other words, the maximum transaction stock price of a listed company is its theoretical price.
4.2.2. The Minimum Value of the Transaction Stock Price
The minimum value of the transaction stock price of the listed company can be defined as the value of the fact part valuation in the theoretical price of the listed company at a certain moment. That is to say that a listed company's minimum transaction price can not be less than the value of the fact part valuation.
4.2.3. Out of Price Scope Management
In real transactions, a listed company's transaction stock price may break above mentioned scope of the maximum and minimum value scope, this is the out of the price scope issue, the stock trading over the maximum value of transaction stock price is the manifestation of the stock market bubble, the stock trading breaking the minimum value of the transaction stock price is the manifestation of the loss of entrepreneur’s core asset. So it is necessary to manage the out of the price scope issue. Here two levels of management can be conducted, the first level is transaction management within the scope of the sentinel values, which is the normal transaction management; one is the transaction management outside the scope of the sentinel values. Transaction outside the sentinel values is generally not allowed, the specific approaches can be further explored by the financial regulatory authorities. Such as voluntary, undisclosed, restricted transactions, and so on.
4.3. Summary
Sentry theory provides a theoretical foundation for out of price scope management, eliminating the stock market bubbles and preventing financial risks. Sentry theory minimizes the interference of random factors on stock trading to the max degree and increases the certainty of valuation.
5. Similar Concepts
In the theories of security market, there are several theories similar to sentry theory, here the author simply introduce them in order to show the differences:
5.1. Box Theory
Box theory is a theory proposed by American Nicolas Darvas according to his security market practice. "Nicolas Darvas thinks stock prices generally fluctuate within a certain range, creating a box of stock prices for fluctuation. When the stock price slips down to the bottom of the box, it will be supported by buying; when the stock price rises to the top of the box, it will be under pressure to selling. Once the stock price effectively break the top or bottom of the original box, the stock price will enter a new stock box to run, the top or bottom of the original stock will become the important support level and pressure level. Therefore, as long as the stock price rose and rushed to another box imagined by your heart, you should buy; in the other hand, you should sell." [8]
5.2. Price Change Limitation
Price change limitation is the transaction restriction measure implemented when the transaction price of a listed company in the stock market changed out of a certain range in a day. This kind practice of stock market management is very common in China and in many other countries around the world. [9]
5.3. Fusing Mechanism
"Fusing refers to stopping the transaction in a full day or within a specified period of time when the market price changes touch a specified range. That is to say, the exchange market does not accept orders which is over the rising price limit and below the falling price limit, and fusing is just the temporary fluctuation restriction before this maximum fluctuation limitation, fusing has a certain activation condition.[10] This is the current fusing mechanism.
5.4. Differences
Box theory is a kind empirical theory proposed based on the stock market trading activities; it is a technical observation on the outside manifestation of the stock price. The similarity with the sentry theory I proposed is inevitable, and this kind similarity just proves the correctness of my sentry theory.
Change limitation and fusing mechanism all are security market regulatory mechanisms, such regulatory mechanisms are implemented for the protection of investors’ interests and stable market, is purely implemented for human’s needs. Such regulatory measures lack the support of theoretical foundation, and the sentry theory precisely provides the necessary theoretical foundation for them. Fusing mechanism is almost exactly the same with the out of scope price management I my proposed.
6. Significances
Sentry theory has laid a theoretical foundation for the calculability of the instantaneous stock price of listed company, which lays a theoretical foundation for the calculability of stock market bubble, and provides the necessary theoretical foundation for the implementation of financial regulatory measures. Sentry theory can completely eliminate the collapse crisis, the financial crisis, and the completely realize the rationality and stability of financial market, achieve the rational prosperity we desired.
作者在本论文中提出了哨兵理论，对上市公司的理论价格的确定性和实际成交价的不确定性进行了深入的分析，并将备战商业评估模式应用于上市公司理论价格 的确定。哨兵理论进一步提出了上市公司理论价格的哨兵值（最大值和最小值），并分析了溢价的问题。哨兵理论将最大可能地减少股票市场中的不公平和不公正性，最大可能地彻底消除股市泡沫，最大可能地减少上市公司的金融风险，从而完善现有的股票市场管理机制，降低金融危机所出现的几率，并开始实现理性化的繁荣。
1. 前言
世界著名的经济学家罗伯特∙席勒在其著作《非理性繁荣》中提到说“股市定价并未形成一门完美的科学”[1] 。那么，我们如何实现理性的繁荣，我们如何实现股票定价的科学性呢？当然股票市场理性的繁荣还应当包括对于随机因素的抑制。这里我提出哨兵理论，并将备战商业评估模式应用于上市公司理论价格的确定，并进一步提出了上市公司理论价格的哨兵值（最大值和最小值），从而为实现理性的繁荣迈出坚实的一步。
2. 上市公司的价值与价格
2.1. 上市公司的市值
上市公司的市值是指一家上市公司的发行股份按照市场价格计算出来的股票总价值，其计算方法为每股股票的市场价格乘以发行总股数。[2]
2.2. 上市公司的股票价格
上市公司的股票价格是指股票在证券市场上买卖的价格。股票价格分为理论价格和市场价格，股票的理论价格不等于股票的市场价格，两者具有相当大的差距。[3]
2.3. 上市公司的评估价值
上市公司的评估价值应当同非上市公司的评估价值具有相同的内涵，这里，可以将其定义为利用统一的备战商业评估模式所评估出的上市公司价值。
2.4. 上市公司的理论价格
上市公司的理论价格就是一个上市公司依据其股票的理论价格而计算出来的市值。上市公司股票的理论价格应当是上市公司的评估价值均摊后每一股股票所获得的评估价值。因此，上市公司的理论价格就是其评估价值。
3. 备战商业评估模式
3.1. 备战商业评估模式
备战商业评估模式就是事实加增长模式，事实部分就是针对一个商业的现实资源特征和现实盈利特征而进行的评估，增长部分就是针对一个商业的盈利增长特征和资源扩张特张而进行的评估。[4]
3.2. 股价波动因素与备战商业评估模式的一致性
由于上市公司的理论价格就是其评估价值，也就是利用统一的备战商业评估模式所评估出的上市公司价值，因此，上市公司股票价格的波动应当同备战商业评估模式相一致，也就是说波动的上市公司股票价格也应当可以利用备战商业评估模式计算出来，也就是上市公司瞬时股票价格的理论上的可计算性。下面就此一致性进行分析[5][6][7]：
3.2.1.
与事实部分评估相一致的因素
新产品 – 现实核心资源
高于预期的盈利 – 现实盈利状况
政策资源 – 力量价值
人力资源 – 现实核心资源
3.2.2.
与增长部分评估相一致的因素
预期的增长 – 盈利增长状况
政策资源 - 盈利增长状况
市场竞争形态 - 盈利增长状况
宏观经济现状 - 盈利增长状况
市场政治生态 - 盈利增长状况
（当以上因素发生改变时，则可以按照事实部分评估来处理）
3.2.3.
其他因素
以下因素大多属于股票交易的心理因素，主要影响上市公司的成交价，并不能够决定上市公司的理论价格：
·
投资者情绪
·
收购要约
·
法律诉讼（这里有一定的现实成本的计算，因此，这一因素部分地属于事实部分的评估）
·
交易代理
4. 哨兵理论
哨兵理论是建立在备战商业评估模式之上，对上市公司的理论价格的波动范围进行限定的一个理论。当然这一理论也同样适用于非上市公司。
4.1. 上市公司股价的确定
4.1.1.
上市公司股票的理论价格
上市公司股票的理论价格见2.4中的定义。上市公司股票的理论价格由于波动因素而产生的瞬时价格也是可以计算的，但却是不现实的，没有必要的。
4.1.2.
上市公司股票的成交价格
由于在股票交易中，存在有许多不确定性的因素，上市公司股票的成交价格同理论价格是不一致的。
这些不确定的因素主要来自于交易的随机性，投机性，时间性，竞争性，等等。交易者的心理因素也是不确定的因素之一。
4.2. 股价范围的确定
在某一个时间断面上，一个上市公司的理论价格应当是唯一的，但其成交价格却未必同其理论价格相一致。一个上市公司的成交股价应当是在一个范围内，至少从理论上来讲，这个范围就是一个上市公司成交股价的最大值和最小值，也就是哨兵值。由于上市企业的价值是在市场竞争中动态变化的，因此，在不同的时间断面上，一个上市企业的哨兵值也是在动态的变化着的。
4.2.1.
成交股价的最大值
一个上市公司成交股价的最大值可以定义为该上市公司在某一个评估时间断面的理论价格。也就是说一个上市公司的成交股价的最大值就是其理论价格。
4.2.2.
成交股价的最小值
一个上市公司成交股价的最小值可以定义为该上市公司在某一个评估时间断面的理论价格中所评估出的事实部分的评估价值。也就是说一个上市公司的成交价格最小是不能够小于其事实部分的评估价值的。
4.2.3.
溢价管理
在现实交易中，一个上市公司的成交股价有可能会突破以上所说的最大值和最小值的范围，这就是溢价的问题，突破成交股价最大值的股票交易是股市泡沫的表现，突破成交股价最小值的股票交易是企业核心资产流失的表现。因此很有必要对溢价问题进行管理。这里可以进行两个层次的管理，第一层次是哨兵值范围内的交易管理，也就是正常的交易管理；一个是哨兵值外的交易的管理。哨兵值外的交易一般是不允许的，具体办法可以由金融监管部门进行进一步的探讨。例如：自愿的，不公开的，受限制的交易，等等。
4.3. 总结
哨兵理论为溢价管理，消除股市泡沫，防范金融风险提供了理论的依据。哨兵理论最大程度地
抑制了随机因素对股票交易的干扰，增加了估价的确定性。
5. 相似的概念
在证券市场理论中，有几个同哨兵理论相类似的理论，这里作者对他们简单地加以介绍，以示区别：
5.1. 箱型理论
箱型理论是由美国人戴维斯∙尼古拉根据其在证券市场交易中的实践所提出的一个理论。“达韦斯·尼古拉认为股价一般是在一定的范围内波动，这样就形成一个股价运行的箱体。当股价滑落到箱体的底部时会受到买盘的支撑，当股价上升到箱体的顶部时会受到卖盘的压力。一旦股价有效突破原箱体的顶部或底部，股价就会进入一个新的股票箱里运行，原股票箱的顶部或底部将成为重要的支撑位和压力位。因此，只要股价上扬并冲到了心里所想象的另外一个箱子，就应买进；反之，则应卖出。”
[8]
涨跌限价就是一个上市公司在证券市场上的交易价格在一天内的涨跌幅度超过某一个限定范围后而进行的限制交易的措施。这种股市管理的实践在中国和世界上其他许多国家都是非常普遍的。[9]
5.3. 熔断制度
“熔断是指市场变动价格触及到某个规定幅度时，实施停止全天或者规定时间段内交易。也就是说交易所不接受超过涨停价的买单和低于跌停价的卖单，而熔断则是在这个最大波动限制之前的暂时性波动限制，熔断有一定启动条件。”。
[10] 这就是现实的熔断制度。
5.4. 区别
箱型理论是基于证券市场交易活动而提出的一种经验性的理论，是对股票成交价格外在表象的一种技术化的观察。同我所提出的哨兵理论的相似性是必然的，这种相似性恰恰证明了我的哨兵理论的正确性。
涨跌限价和熔断制度都是证券市场监管机制，这种监管机制是出于对投资者利益的保护和市场的稳定而实施的，是纯粹出于人为的需要而实施的。这种监管措施缺乏理论基础的支持，而哨兵理论也恰恰为他们提供了所必需的理论基础。 熔断制度同我所提出的溢价管理几乎是完全一致的。
6. 意义
哨兵理论为上市公司瞬时股价的可计算性奠定了理论基础，为股市泡沫的可计算性奠定了理论基础，为金融监管措施的实施提供了必要的理论依据。哨兵理论可以彻底地消除崩盘危机，金融危机，并彻底地实现金融市场的合理和稳定，实现我们所期望的理性的繁荣。
[4]. Beizhan Liu (2016). <<On the Uniqueness of Business
Valuation>> in <<Policy Framework>> (pp 55-56)
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